Over the last few days we’ve had tons of ink (and electrons) spilled over the choice of Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney’s running mate. As those who have followed my TMV posts know, I had hoped for a selection like Rob Portman but I wanted to give myself a few days to think things over before making a knee jerk response.
But as I’ve had time to think about it my initial reactions have pretty much remained the same. I am uncomfortable with the selection and I think that in the long run it will turn out to be a negative for the GOP ticket.
Let me be clear though, I am not in the “Paul Ryan is evil” camp that so many of my liberal friends seem eager to jump into. Ryan is a clearly intelligent and thoughtful man with 14 years of experience in Washington. He has taken a serious stab at addressing budgetary issues that most politicians have run from.
He is also by all accounts a decent man with a deep concern for public service and for his fellow citizens. He does not want old people to lose their Social Security, he does not want to let children starve, he does not want to have us drinking dirty water or eating spoiled food (all allegations I’ve seen in the media over the past few days).
Having said that, there are some problems I do have with the candidate. Certainly it is important for us to take a real look at budgetary reform and doing that requires entitlement reform as well.
Those on the left who think we can just continue to spend at the current levels and that “taxing the rich” will resolve all are wrong. By the same token, those on the right who think we can solve the budget mess without tax increases are also wrong.
I don’t want to get too deep into the weeds on the budget issues as I plan to write a separate post on that topic but I wanted to address it briefly as a foundation for why I have problems with the Ryan choice.
It is perhaps cliche to say so but before you can govern you have to win the election. If you don’t come up with 270 electoral votes in November than you aren’t going to be changing the carpets in the Oval Office and your proposals are meaningless.
Thus for me the most important factor in choosing a running mate is that he or she will help you win the election. This doesn’t mean you entirely compromise your values (IE I would not expect a Republican to choose a hard liberal or a Democrat a hard conservative) but you do pick the 80% good candidate who can help over the 90% good one who cannot.
Looking at Ryan, I do not see how he seriously improves the prospects of a Romney victory in November.
Yes he is a conservative who will energize the base but all of the polls prior to the announcment showed the Republicans with a much more energized base than the Democrats had. Conservatives might not love Romney but from their point of view, the prospect of four more years of Obama/Biden should be more than sufficient to prompt a heavy turnout in November.
Certainly it is possible he will prompt some voters to show up to the polls or to work a bit harder for the campaign but I don’t see that much of a benefit.
On the other side of the coin I think there are several areas where Ryan has a negative impact on things from the Romney POV.
At the same time Ryan is energizing the GOP base I think he also serves to help energize the Democratic base, and that could balance out the modest gains amoung the Republicans.
More importantly I think Ryan could turn elements of the key independent swing vote that both parties depend on. I don’t see a moderate in Ohio turning to a Romney/Ryan ticket the way they would to a Romney/Portman offering.
Similarly the entitlement issue gives the Democrats a real opening with seniors in Florida, and that could hamper GOP efforts to take back that important state.
Obviously we still have several months to go and many things will play out, but my initial reaction is not positive. I won’t say it’s entirely negative yet and I still lean to supporting Romney (to the degree my vote in California matters) but it is not the kind of choice I would have made.