Just how challenging is the political and economic context for Republican Presidential candidate Sen. John McCain in his battle against Democratic Sen. Barack Obama for the White House? Two recent Gallup polls tell the tale.
A Gallup poll finds Americans’ level of satisfaction is now at 9 percent — a record low that exceeds how dissatisfied Americans were during the administration of Democratic President Jimmy Carter. It’s the lowest satisfaction rating in Gallup history:
The previous low point for Gallup’s measure of satisfaction had been 12%, recorded back in 1979, in the midst of rising prices and gas shortages when Jimmy Carter was president. Gallup has recorded a 14% satisfaction level at several points — once in the senior Bush’s administration in 1992, and several times earlier this year.
The reason for Americans’ extraordinarily low level of satisfaction is straightforward: the economy.
And — not surprisingly — this is coupled with another political milestone: President George Bush now gets the second lowest Presidential rating in Gallup poll history:
President Bush’s job approval rating is at 25% in the latest Oct. 3-5 Gallup Poll, the lowest of the Bush administration, and only three percentage points above the lowest presidential approval rating in Gallup Poll history.
Bush’s previous low point was 27%, measured about a week ago. The 25% approval rating is one point higher than Richard Nixon’s lowest job approval rating of 24% measured in the summer of 1974, and it is just three points higher than Harry Truman’s all-time Gallup low job approval rating of 22% measured in 1952. No other presidents have had job approval ratings of 27% or lower in Gallup Poll history.
The political impact of this is clear.
McCain is unlikely to veer his campaign back into a lead in the polls unless he quickly and aggressively refashions it to hammer home what he could do differently on the economy than Obama and Bush. A mostly-negative personal campaign aimed at raising questions about Obama is unlikely to work, especially because two debates now allowed viewers to see the flesh-and-blood Obama, versus the political caricature. Obama could still make a gaffe that sparks a loss of mass confidence in him. And there could be foreign events or terrorism-related events that surface that could have an impact.
Meanwhile, serious doubts about Obama linger in some key parts of the electorate and there is continued speculation about how the race issue will impact voting. But these numbers suggest the electorate may be poised for a classic “throw the bums out” move come Election Day — unless McCain can convincingly and substantively convince Americans that Obama will create new problems and worsen existing ones and that he can offer specifics to tackle growing problems.
In that context, charges that Obama is “palling around with terrorists” steps on the central message McCain actually needs if he wants to win more than just his existing Republican base and conservative talk radio hosts and fans.
Many analysts now talk about McCain needing a “game changer” (the 2008 overused phrase which now joins phrases such as “defining moment:…:home run”…”change the subject”..and “the smell test”) at next week’s final debate. But, in reality, if he wants to truly change the game, he’ll have to do it earlier than that.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.