It is amazing how often Donald Trump acts on important issues without a significant strategy. He cannot put two and two together to understand how one action can impact another. In trying to get North Korea to surrender its nuclear weapons, Trump did not give full consideration to how his Iran action would affect North Korea. He was itching to withdraw from the Iran pact made by Obama even though U.S. allies aside from Israel and Saudi Arabia were warning him not to do it. So he did it without allowing European allies to improve the Iran deal and without understanding how North Korea might view his move.
If the United States does not adhere to the diplomatic deals they have made under one administration, how can North Korea be certain that future administrations won’t overturn any arrangements that Donald Trump makes with them. It appears that America is willing to go back on its word if a president is not completely satisfied with all the details of a deal made previously. This doesn’t only hold for North Korea, but for any negotiated settlements the United States makes with any opponent. But if Trump was absolutely set on withdrawing from the Iran pact, why wasn’t he smart enough to wait until negotiations were over and a solid deal was reached with North Korea, or not. Now, America is viewed as untrustworthy by the world at large and North Korea will take that into account when and if they fashion an agreement with the United States.
Though Trump had campaigned on the idea of negating the Iran treaty, he had been cautioned against doing it by previous advisers like General McMaster, Rex Tillerson, and the intelligence agencies which believe Iran has been compliant with the arrangements. General Mattis has also been against ending it. But Trump had been chomping at the bit to act and his new National Security Adviser Bolton and Secretary of State Pompeo were in favor of ending the Iran deal. In fact, that was probably the reason Trump hired them and got rid of the opponents. He doesn’t like to be contradicted or opposed on any of his instinctual moves by anyone.
Netanyahu also was pushing Trump to take this action even though his military and security advisers thought the deal was working and would keep Iran from a nuclear weapon for at least ten to fifteen years. But from this point on, America’s guarantees are meaningless. And Israel and the United States are much closer to a war with Iran which could inflame much of the Middle East.
If we do get into a conflagration, our allies will abandon us as the war will have been of America’s making. Will Iran suffer, if the U.S. re-imposes its previous sanctions? Minimally, if China, Russia, and Europe continue to trade with Iran.
It is also too bad Trump set up America to be the bad guy with the Iranian people because there had been much unrest and dissatisfaction in the country. The possibility existed of another revolution and the clerics being overthrown. But Iranians are also strongly nationalistic and will likely rally around the government in a confrontation with the U.S. Well, strategic thinking was never Trump’s strong suit. If he would only learn to read.
Resurrecting Democracy
www.robertlevinebooks.com
Political junkie, Vietnam vet, neurologist- three books on aging and dementia. Book on health care reform in 2009- Shock Therapy for the American Health Care System. Book on the need for a centrist third party- Resurrecting Democracy- A Citizen’s Call for a Centrist Third Party published in 2011. Aging Wisely, published in August 2014 by Rowman and Littlefield. Latest book- The Uninformed Voter published May 2020