If you’re like me, you probably don’t know a lot about Venezuela. Maybe you know that Hugo Chavez took control years ago and that the economy hasn’t done well since. At least that’s the U.S. spin. You may have heard that the government of Venezuela is “socialist”, though it’s really more totalitarian. Maybe you know that Venezuela is an oil rich country, bordering the Caribbean along South America’s northern edge.
So, what’s going on that should concern us now? My first alert to look further into this came from friends. As you may know, I keep a number of right wing friends. It is common for folks like that to pick up Trumpian talking points and spread them both in person and on social media. Lately those talking points have become increasingly militant on the subject of Venezuela. So I took a look. Here’s some of what I found.
[If it helps to assess my bias, or lack thereof, my sources include The Wall Street Journal, NBC News, UPI, and Al Jazeera English.]
The current president of Venezuela is Chavez protégé Nicolas Maduro. He’s close to Cuba and governs from a Cuban style socialist/totalitarian model. He has also angered the United States, as did Chavez before him, by taking our industries out of the Venezuelan oil business. Maduro also has played it smart with Venezuelan monetary resources by keeping them largely out the reach of U. S. sanctions. Trump and the guys are not pleased about that, but China, Russia and Turkey love it.
Maduro is accused of holding rigged elections to get himself re-elected. Whether or not this is true is a subject of debate both in Venezuela and around the world. Recently opposition leader Juan Guaido, with the quiet backing of the U. S., declared himself president of Venezuela, notwithstanding the official results that claim Maduro was re-elected. The United States has now officially recognized Guairdo as president. Maduro responded by ordering all U. S. diplomats out of Venezuela, and the U. S. State Department responded by refusing to leave. That borders on an act of war on our part, by the way. Refusing to remove diplomatic personnel when ordered to do so by the host country is frowned upon internationally. Of course, we conveniently recognize the “other guy” as the real president, so Maduro’s orders don’t impact us. Right?
Diplomacy has not been all sweetness and light for years between our nations. We have not had an ambassador to Venezuela since the last one was expelled in 2010. And just last year our Assistant Secretary of State for the Region, Roberta Jacobson, resigned in protest of Trump administration policies. Add to this unseasoned stew that key State Department career workers are currently on furlough or working without pay during the shutdown. They are not even allowed to have paid lunches with foreign diplomats because of lack of funding.
So, who’s minding the ship of diplomatic state where Venezuela is concerned? Because of Maduro’s ties to Cuba, one principal point person has become anti-Cuba gadfly Marco Rubio. He gets assists from John Bolton, who last I checked never met a country he didn’t want to invade, along with Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. To show the deftness of diplomacy at work here, our Vice President has recorded a message currently being played in Venezuela encouraging people to rise up in rebellion against Maduro.
Meanwhile, Turkey is sending its own messages to the Venezuelan people supporting Maduro. Turkey has a major monetary interest. Turkey took over processing and certifying Venezuelan gold when Venezuela moved its gold certification from Switzerland to avoid potential U. S. sanctions. Russia is a Venezuelan ally going back to Chavez, and China is a major trading partner. All of them recognize Maduro and reject the self-proclaimed presidency of Juan Guaido.
Events are moving quickly and getting hotter daily. We have a president who, in addition to being a hopelessly impulsive hip shooter, needs a distraction from his burgeoning border wall fiasco. And my Trumpian friends on the right continue to beat the drums, including the beatification of Guaido, with glorious pictures of him looking oh so much like the prototypical South American dictator.
Andrea Mitchel of NBC News, a veteran foreign affairs correspondent, presents this proposition, “The wild card is what will happen if Maduro crushes the opposition: will Trump send in the U.S. military?” My proposition is whether U. S. troops will walk on Venezuelan soil regardless of whether Maduro crushes the opposition.
My concern is this. Trump is yet again creating a crisis of his own making by ordering diplomats to stay in Venezuela after being ordered to leave. This sets up a scenario for Maduro supporters to take over the embassy or consulates, holding U. S. diplomats hostage, or Maduro sending in the police to arrest and imprison our diplomats pending removal from the country. Either of these Trump-made crises would in turn provide an excuse for Trump to respond with military intervention.
* Image courtesy of Pixabay.
Contributor, aka tidbits. Retired attorney in complex litigation, death penalty defense and constitutional law. Former Nat’l Board Chair: Alzheimer’s Association. Served on multiple political campaigns, including two for U.S. Senator Mark O. Hatfield (R-OR). Contributing author to three legal books and multiple legal publications.