Last fall I came across an article that I wanted to write about but I didn’t know what to say that would fit within TMV guidelines (I even talked to Joe about letting me break them).
The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.
The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves…
“Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources,” he added.
A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was “imperative not to anger the Americans” but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. “We have [already] entered the ‘peak oil’ zone. I think that the situation is really bad,” he added…
A report by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) last month said worldwide production of conventionally extracted oil could “peak” and go into terminal decline before 2020 – but that the government was not facing up to the risk. Steve Sorrell, chief author of the report, said forecasts suggesting oil production will not peak before 2030 were “at best optimistic and at worst implausible”.
But as far back as 2004 there have been people making similar warnings. Colin Campbell, a former executive with Total of France told a conference: “If the real [oil reserve] figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets … in the end that would suit no one.”
If peak oil is around the corner we are looking at an economic collapse (if nothing is done in the mean time) that makes the last few years look rosy. To understand why you have to understand that the economy is based on credit and for a credit based system to work it must continuously expand. Since there is a very high correlation between oil and economic expansion, then this logically shows that the economy won’t be able to expand until we change our technological/social structures to no longer have that correlation with oil output. Peak oil isn’t about running out of oil, it is about merely leveling of the rate of extraction.
Peak oil is starting to move more into the mainstream, Kuwait just released a prediction it will hit in 2014.
In the last thread there were many topics related to morality including environmental stewardship, personal growth, making sure others have basic security, etc. and the role of governance/company structures in those areas. I’m starting this thread because I think that peak oil (well peak energy) is going to destroy our current paradigm and dominant the discussion for the next few decades at all levels of society. This link gives a good overview of the expected implications of peak oil.
Anyway I have tons more to say but I don’t want to frontload it to allow people to say what they want.