Europe refuses to remember its history. Perhaps it’s because that might entail doing something to prevent history from repeating itself. The Russian “invasion” of Ukraine with the goal of the eastern Ukrainian states achieving independence and becoming part of a greater Russia is reminiscent of Hitler’s grab of the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia in 1938. Hitler’s pretext was that German speakers in the Sudetenland wanted to be part of a greater Germany, just as Putin wants eastern Ukraine with its Russian speakers to be part of a greater Russia. And European leaders sit and twiddle their thumbs. They have even been wary of labeling Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an invasion as that might force them to act more decisively, almost afraid of displeasing Russia.
As the Russian speaking Ukrainian separatists were unsuccessful in battling the Ukrainian army in spite of Russian support and continued to lose ground, Putin found it necessary to have Russian troops and heavy armaments move into Ukraine to fight the Ukrainians. This reversed the Ukrainian gains. And still, the European leaders could not agree on any strong collective moves to penalize Putin and his Russian minions. Even the shooting down of a civilian aircraft by the Russians or their separatist allies did not move the Europeans to invoke punishing sanctions on the Russians that would significantly damage their economy. Additional sanctions have been just been debated at the NATO summit meeting but are yet to be announced. However, France did finally agree to hold off on delivery of the advanced Mistral warship they were constructing for Putin after long deliberation and pressure from the other European states.
For the first time since World War II, an aggressor nation is changing the boundaries of another state in Europe by military force and to this point, the Europeans have done little to counteract this change. NATO over the years has become increasingly weak, the military budgets of its member states shrinking, as the possibility of an outside armed threat to European stability was discounted. NATO members are supposed to spend at least 2% of their GDPs on their militaries. With economic problems at home, leaders have been reluctant to meet that objective and didn’t even want to consider the possibility of an armed conflict with Russia.
The countries in Eastern Europe previously under Soviet control and in most danger from Russian aggression, in general have spent the least on their armed forces, along with Germany and the Scandinavian nations. The Europeans tend to see the United States as their protector in dealing with Russia and militant Islam. The US spent 4.9% of its GDP on its military in 2012, France 2.2%, Great Britain 2.3% and Germany 1.4%. As the strongest European state economically, Germany could certainly have strengthened its military forces in line with NATO’s directive. And aside from Poland which spent 1.9% of its GDP on its military, the other Eastern European states spent 1.1-1.2%.
There are two ways NATO can respond to Russian aggression- economic sanctions or militarily. A military response is essentially a non-starter, though a military build-up and strengthening of NATO forces is certainly necessary to deter Russian actions in the future. The problem for Ukraine is that it is not a NATO nation and other European states are reluctant to take a strong stand to protect it. They have not even sent in replacement armaments or tried to build up the Ukrainian armed forces to resist the Russians. It appears that at the NATO summit, European leaders encouraged President Poroshenko of Ukraine to negotiate a cease-fire and an end to the war with the rebel leadership. Unfortunately, this gives the separatists credibility. It also provides Putin and Russia further cover and the ability to lie about their use of Russian troops to back the separatists. And it seems as if Putin’s seizure of the Crimea is accepted as a fait accompli by the Europeans. Win-win for Russia.
However, if Eastern European states (particularly those with a Russian speaking minority) that joined NATO are to feel less fearful about the risk of a Russian invasion with Russia just next door, NATO has to take further steps to bolster its military deterrence. The concept of a rapid response force of four thousand men is a joke compared to the strength of the Russian military. More money must be spent by NATO states on their militaries and the size of their ground forces must be increased. In addition, Russia must be hit with meaningful economic sanctions for their invasion of Ukraine, including their banking and financial sector, defense goods, and new investments in gas and oil production. European states must also free themselves from dependence on Russian oil and gas, in order for them to be truly free.
Resurrecting Democracy
www.robertlevinebooks.com
Political junkie, Vietnam vet, neurologist- three books on aging and dementia. Book on health care reform in 2009- Shock Therapy for the American Health Care System. Book on the need for a centrist third party- Resurrecting Democracy- A Citizen’s Call for a Centrist Third Party published in 2011. Aging Wisely, published in August 2014 by Rowman and Littlefield. Latest book- The Uninformed Voter published May 2020