Today’s preliminary deal with Iran over its nuclear program is a master stroke of US diplomacy, which if it comes to full fruition will affect the region’s political, economic and security architecture.
That final shape likely to emerge over three years would deliver regional stability that could make the Jewish homeland feel less besieged and more at peace over the longer term. But many changes would have to be made first.
Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu is beating the drum of Israel’s existential fears. But the accord signed by the six powers representing the international community – the US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China — shows that his warnings lack credibility in the world’s eyes.
The initial deal has strengths and weaknesses which will be revealed over the coming half year. But it has already clarified two political gains for Teheran. Both are likely to erode Israel’s influence.
First, without saying so clearly, the US and Europe are willing to accept the legitimacy of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s theocratic and undemocratic grip over Iran — if his regime clearly and verifiably shuns nuclear weapons. A start to closing Iran’s pathways to nuclear weapons is a plus for Israel but the continuance of a regime deeply opposed to a Jewish homeland in Palestine is not.
Second, the six powers are eager to open Iran’s economy to trade and full economic interaction with them. They are salivating over business opportunities in Iran that have been blocked off by sanctions. This is good for the world but not so good for Israel if it has trouble building bridges to Teheran’s regime.
As matters stand, the real risk to Israeli influence comes from Iran’s rise as a dynamic economic power, which is likely to happen when sanctions are lifted. That would reduce Israel’s economic attractiveness to other nearby powers, including Turkey, Kazakhstan, India and China. Europe may also see Iran as offering more profits than Israel.
The triggers that forced Teheran to negotiate were President Barack Obama’s success in building a diplomatic wall with Russia and China against Iran, and buttressing it with painful financial sanctions.
Teheran came to the table but it was not in a position of weakness. It accumulated bargaining chips by speeding up stockpiling of nuclear fuel and raising its enrichment to 20%. The stockpiles were scary enough to push the six powers to reach an agreement in just two months after nearly a decade on the see saw.
Both sides were ready for a deal. For Obama, keeping the sanctions airtight was becoming harder by the month while Teheran’s rulers feared uprising by an angry people. In particular, the “bazaaris” (middle class business communities) are worried about longer term impoverishment and young people despair for jobs and opportunities.
Ironically, Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu’s shrill warnings worked in Teheran’s favor by forcing the negotiators to work at a faster pace. It increased everyone’s fear that Iran might acquire breakthrough capabilities that would make a rollback of its nuclear program impossible at a later stage.
For Iran, the deal is a good one. It will obtain some $7bn dollars in relief in just six months, if it suspends enrichment and allows intrusive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. It will get full rehabilitation into relations with the West if it complies during the six months and reaches a final deal at the end.
In the final deal, it must provide verifiable access and technical means to ensure to the West’s entire satisfaction that it has neutralized all capabilities required to enrich uranium beyond the 5% needed to generate electric power. If it does, all of the $100bn frozen in Western banks will be released and the $4bn in monthly oil and other exports will be freed from sanctions.
The mullahs will be able to claim a great diplomatic victory and deliver more economic benefits to the people, thus consolidating their rule for a much longer time.
Iranians are dynamic, innovative and go-getter but have been held back for nearly 30 years. For 10 years, the mullahs created internal mayhem by using fanatical militias and the republic guards to intimidate and kill people. Then the people bled for 10 years in the war with Iraq, when tens of thousands died from weapons supplied mostly by the US and chemical agents, supplied initially by Britain and Germany. Then they were stifled under US-led economic sanctions.
When they are freed from sanctions, Iranians are capable of turning their country into an economic miracle like China. That would be good for Israel if it can ever find ways of getting past the theocratic regime’s antipathy for it.
In any case, a non-nuclear Iran fuelled by a resurgent economy will alter the region’s political and security relationships. The Geneva agreement is the first step to much wider changes, if it works.