World agricultural disruption could be only years away. In the US, fewer and fewer people make their living working on farms. This is a trend that has been going on for the entire existence of the country as we produce more and more with fewer and fewer people. The cotton gin, for example, put hundreds of people out of work in the 1800s. Humans haven’t milked cows in years. The next 10 – 15 years will pretty much eliminate basic farm jobs, but the effects on world ag and employment could be life-changing, and for many, not in a good way.
I live in St. Louis, Missouri, a center for Agricultural and Biotech ingenuity. As I interact with the folks building the next generation of farming systems, they all tell me that farms will not need people at all within a very few years. According to one expert, small row-crop farms have moved from 280 acres a few years ago to over 1,500 today, with consolidation increasing every year.
Monitors identify precisely where in a field, nutrients, pesticides, etc are required, dramatically reducing waste and run-off into our streams, and the need for humans. The vehicles that deliver these chemicals and ultimately harvest the crops are programmed and left to operate autonomously, requiring neither a driver in the vehicle, nor an operator back at the farmhouse. Drones monitor growing crops for disease, pests and stress. Larger drones deliver precisely what is needed to the exact area that it is needed for healthier crops and higher yields. Drones are being developed for a whole host of operations on farms. They are programmed and operate nearly independently.
Crop-dusting will be a thing of the past very soon. If you’re in that business, find out how to invest in the new drone systems sooner than later.
Tender crops, like grapes and tomatoes, historically picked by hand, are increasingly being picked by robots that can identify which fruits are perfectly ready for picking much more effectively than humans. The need for immigrants to hand-pick these crops is being reduced every day.
A huge change is coming in the perishable, high-value crop industry; interior, factory-like growing. Layers of shelves are stacked inside huge warehouses. Roots are fed hydroponically and precisely. Lighting is perfect and simulates ideal growing conditions. Trays are mechanically moved, the crops are harvested 24/7/365, replanted immediately and returned to their place in the shelving. Everything can be organic and harvested with fully-ripened flavors days before sale. Nothing needs to be stored in CO2 environments or shipped from across the world. Unique plants that cannot be grown in the US can be produced in these facilities. This technology has been perfected by the marijuana industry to satisfy the locally grown requirements of federal law and the high demand for and profitability of the crop. It will be awhile before it makes sense to grow tree-crops indoors, but for those that are highly profitable and very seasonal, it can’t be too far away.
Are these universally used now. Not quite, but they all exist. Robots never tire, they don’t care if its dark or cold or raining or whatever. They are coming. Farming will consolidate even more rapidly. The effects on the US will be minimal. Even more, international tariffs on US agricultural goods will be much less injurious as farms are increasingly owned by huge corporations and organizations that can handle the issue and have political clout internationally.
As these technologies spread across the world, to countries where millions rely on agriculture for survival, the results could create massive economic disruption. As the US, Europe, China, Japan and other heavy purchasers of produce from third world countries begin to grow whatever they want indoors, the effects on the generally poor exporting countries could be dramatic.
photo credit: Nicholas Erwin Vermont [Explored] via photopin (license)
Author of five novels available on Amazon, numerous articles and other commentary.