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There are increasing signs that Teheran is moving closer to a nuclear deal with Washington because it has already scored some wins.
A main reason for the likely deal is political will in Teheran and Washington. Iran’s Hassan Rouhani thinks the surest way for him to win the 2016 parliamentary elections is to convince Iranians that they will never again suffer draconian Western economic and financial sanctions. His boss, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, believes a better economy is a sure way of prolonging theological rule in Iran.
President Barack Obama may believe that bringing Iran out of the cold after nearly 40 years of enmity would be a great legacy. It may also set the stage for a more stable Middle East in which Saudi Arabia returns to its centuries-long peaceful coexistence with the Persians. That may not be easy but it would open new pathways for constructive US diplomacy in the region.
Teheran realizes that its hegemonic power in the region will not derive from possessing usable nuclear weapons. They may guarantee only its national security. The power will derive from its economic strength and national wealth. That cannot be secured over the medium and longer terms without obtaining an end to sanctions and making it impossible for its critics to gather another coalition to impose sanctions.
It also understands that the sanctions are so painful mainly because of nearly total American control over dollar-denominated investment and trade sources. So it would like to benefit from the emerging alternatives being set up by China and Russia but cannot do so without first opening cracks in the current sanctions coalition.
Teheran wants to lure Russia and China away from the sanctions coalition, followed by Europeans. If Washington backs away from a deal because of Israel’s warnings, the coalition is sure to fray regardless of how skillfully American diplomats put the blame on Iran. Teheran is being more pliable than ever to avoid blame from Moscow, Beijing and some Europeans.
A main reason for Teheran’s flexibility is that it has already won US acceptance of the chief ambition for which it negotiated so hard for some 13 years. That was to continue mastering all aspects of technology and manufacturing capabilities to make nuclear fuels for energy, medicine and other peaceful purposes.
The US and its European allies did not accept this ambition before the negotiations because of suspicions about the Teheran regime’s perfidy regarding nuclear weapons. The deal under negotiation would give Iran at least 10 years to reduce those suspicions while strengthening the regime at home because Iranians will no longer need to fear more severe sanctions.
Teheran has scored other big wins that play well among Iranian voters. Notably, the fear of war or military strikes has receded and credible pathways have opened to dismantling the pain of sanctions.
Iran does not need diplomatic victory in negotiations with Secretary of State John Kerry. It needs only to create a situation where Washington will not be able to persuade China, Russia and other non-Arab nations to support more sanctions.
Washington took over 20 years to build the coalition for sanctions and Teheran could not escape them because of international consensus. However, the growing cold war between Washington and Moscow over Ukraine has made Russia, a long time friend of Iran, more amenable to Teheran’s arguments.
It also created opportunities for Rouhani to bust sanctions by turning to new economic structures financed by China that would erode and bypass the hegemony of American financial control over economic flows in Asia — which is Iran’s neighborhood.
China is trying to set up Asian structures centered on the Yuan and financed by its economic surplus of over $4 trillion. They include an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, a New Development Bank (NDB) for emerging economies, and a military partnership called the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
All of them include Russia and India but exclude the US. All are dominated by Chinese funding likely to be around $400 billion in the first phase. All are scheduled to become active in 2015.
Rouhani is trying to load the loosening of sanctions into the front end of the 10 year interim period likely to emerge from the ongoing negotiations with Kerry. Even if Kerry manages to push them to the back end, the deal’s positive psychological impacts would make it much harder to prevent sanctions-busting.
If Washington enters a deal of whatever kind with Iran this year on nuclear issues, both Russia and China will consider that their job is done. Both are committed to help limit Iran’s nuclear program to peaceful uses. They are not committed to punishing Iran because of Israeli fears. They may not hesitate to help Teheran to make any sanctions more porous.
The main American gain will be the 12 month break out period – meaning the minimum time required to increase enrichment of materials for nuclear warheads and to perfect the weapons. However, policing that period will be much harder in a less economically weak Iran.
Obama is caught between hammer and anvil. It will be very hard for him to reject a deal at Israel’s behest because he does not have other viable alternatives and worsening enmity with Iran is not in the American interest or of its Arab allies.