In a truly stunning new poll, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis tops former President Donald Trump by 23 points and would defeat Joe Biden in 2024. The new Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll is a poll of national voters.
The new poll is particularly bad news for Trump: a prime reason many Republicans backed him was that he was seen as a winner and that he or she who didn’t back him could be obliterated politically, plus not backing him would defuse a perceived political powerhouse that the GOP could ride to victory. Trump’s poorly received re-election speech, his mounting legal problems, his dinner with holocaust deniers and anti-semites, and his call to jettison the constitution have contributed to his political erosion. Plus, there seems to be Trump fatigue.
However, the poll numbers don’t necessarily mean Trump is politically cooked: the poll only matches Trump against DeSantis not against what is more likely to happen: a number of GOPers seeking the 2024 Republican nomination, which would dilute the Republican anyone-but-Trump vote.
“There’s a new Republican sheriff in town,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “DeSantis outpolls Trump not only among the general electorate, but also among these Republican-leaning voters who have been the former president’s base. Republicans and conservative independents increasingly want Trumpism without Trump.”
In a hypothetical matchup, DeSantis also leads President Joe Biden 47%-43% among all voters, with 7% undecided, 2% indicating they would vote for someone else, 1% saying they wouldn’t vote, and 1% refusing a response. Biden easily defeats Trump 47%-40% among all voters, with 5% indicating someone else, 4% saying they would not vote, 4% undecided, and 1% refusing a response.
Trump’s approval rating now stands at just 30%, compared to 46% for Biden.
Paleologos cautioned that the successful DeSantis equation only works in a one-on-one matchup against Donald Trump. “Add in a number of other Republican presidential candidates who would divide the anti-Trump vote,” he said, “and you have a recipe for a repeat of the 2016 Republican caucuses and primaries, when Trump outlasted the rest of the divided field.”
When all voters were asked if Trump should run in 2024, the answer was a resounding no (69%), while just 25% want him to try again. President Biden fared just as poorly among registered voters.
Over 67% did not want him to seek re-election, compared with just 23% who would like him to run.
New Suffolk/USA Today poll on 2024:
GOP Primary
DeSantis 56
Trump 33General Election
Biden 47 – Trump 40
DeSantis 47 – Biden 43https://t.co/bT72kN07Nl— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) December 13, 2022
We’ve seen the signs for months Trump could be vulnerable in a GOP primary, at least if he faces his strongest potential opponent, Ron DeSantis.
But a new poll is the first to show Trump already trailing DeSantis by a wide margin. | @baseballcrank https://t.co/Dmw8iSrpcf
— National Review (@NRO) December 13, 2022
Quite the disconnect in 2024 polling, depending on who Republicans nominate (per USA Today/Suffolk poll):
Biden 47
Trump 40DeSantis 47
Biden 43https://t.co/gYGPFuS1bc— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) December 13, 2022
He’s melting. In the new bimonthly @USATODAY Suffolk U poll, only 47% of Republican voters want Trump to run for president vs 65% who want DeSantis to run. And by 56% to 33% they want DeSantis to beat Trump. https://t.co/VBgRd2bEIU
— Kurt Andersen (@KBAndersen) December 13, 2022
New USAToday/Suffolk poll shows Trump support falling among Republicans. DeSantis up, Trump down. 2/3 of Americans don't want either Trump or Biden in '24. Majority in GOP wants Trump policies but with different candidate. DeSantis over Biden in matchup. https://t.co/brFTqtWzV0
— Byron York (@ByronYork) December 13, 2022
This is a devastating poll for Trump v DeSantis. Only one demographic prefers the former POTUS: those earning under $20k. Conservatives, Fox viewers prefer RDS by 20-30 points. If accurate, there will have to be a face-saving exit ramp to minimize fallout. https://t.co/v28ePMyO03
— Miranda Devine (@mirandadevine) December 13, 2022
It’s nice to see DeSantis up so much. I don’t want Trump anywhere near the presidency. At least if there’s a cushion other people running won’t necessarily throw it to Trump. And huge difference in how they poll against Biden which is interesting https://t.co/xGhldnUKP5
— Brendan ?????? (@Lawlorbrendans) December 13, 2022
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.