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Posted by on May 16, 2012 in At TMV, Politics | 11 comments

Romney Looks Good in New Set of Polls Against Obama

WASHINGTON – NO IDEOLOGICAL COMPASS and no economic message since before the 2010 midterms has come back to bite Pres. Obama, giving Mitt Romney a strong showing according to multiple polling snapshots of the presidential race today.

A larger stimulus would have been more effective, while illustrating Pres. Obama had a progressive economic plan, with a strong message in 2010 to take on Tea Party austerity at least showing he had a clearly stated economic vision throughout his first term, instead of the series of reactions to Republicans that it has come to represent.

Simpson-Bowles did absolutely nothing for Pres. Obama except to show that he was farming his economic plan out to a bipartisan commission. But even then he couldn’t make a decision on the group’s decisions, letting them die a slow death, except with infotainment talking heads who love it. Making matters more confusing, Pres. Obama also floated a grand bargain on entitlement “reform,” yet another reaction to Republicans digging in their heels, which Speaker Boehner promised to do again. Pres. Obama’s populist Kansas speech was met with glorious praise by partisans, but financial word salads and budgetary bromides without force of action mean squat, especially when they’re nakedly political in the first place.

It has all had a cumulative effect and is the single biggest challenge in Obama facing off with Romney, who will not be intimidated on economics, his strong suit, whether you agree with his theories or not.

The poll showed that relatively few voters consider same-sex marriage their top issue amid continued economic uncertainty, and more than half said it would make no difference in their choice for president. But among those who said Mr. Obama’s position would influence their vote, more said they would be less likely to vote for him as a result; in a close race, even a small shift in swing states could be costly. – Obama’s Switch on Same-Sex Marriage Stirs Skepticism

All of the snapshot polling incorporates the gay marriage equality issue, but come November people will be voting on economics, unless an unforeseen national security matter rears up, then it’s Obama’s advantage all the way.

The snapshot in time polling, starting with the New York Times/CBS, should not surprise anyone, though I’m more interested in the USA Today/Gallup poll.

Though an overwhelming 71% rate economic conditions as poor, a 58% majority predict they will be good a year from now. While those surveyed are inclined to say they are worse off financially than a year ago, nearly two-thirds say they think they’ll be better off this time next year.

[…] Since becoming the presumptive Republican nominee, Romney’s favorable-unfavorable rating has jumped to 50%-41%, his best ever and in the same neighborhood as Obama’s 52%-46% standing. The former Massachusetts governor gets stronger ratings than the president when it comes to handling the economy, the issue likely to drive the campaign.

In the poll, 55% say the economy would get better over the next four years if Romney was elected, compared with 46% who say it would improve if Obama was re-elected. Twenty-seven percent say the economy would get worse in a Romney first term, compared with 37% who say that of an Obama second term.

There’s nothing that will convince me the marriage equality statement of Pres. Obama’s last week will factor in with voters who are seriously considering him in the first place. Though it is telling that the Times poll shows such a whopping number of people, 67% to 24% believing it was politically motivated, which points to a character issue about Barack Obama that has been seen throughout his political rise.

Mitt Romney’s character issue on political expediency and convenience, as well as on 1% economic largess, has been documented, as have been his statements proving he’ll say absolutely anything to win and actually has on a number of occasions.

The Obama camp, through Stephanie Cutter, is saying the Times/CBS polling sampling is untrustworthy, though she used the word “biased” when speaking with Chuck Todd on MSNBC.

In the ABC/Wash Post poll, 54% of women approve of his stance, while men weigh in at 37%. Independents are favorable of his stance, 49-43, though some independents are strongly against, but I’d bet they’re also conservatives who hate the notion of marriage equality. Some people will never evolve to the point of accepting it’s a civil rights issue.

In the USA/Gallup poll, understanding we’re talking about a snapshot of today, Republicans have taken the lead in the fight to control Congress, 50%-44%.

Another sign of restlessness with Pres. Obama comes at the very end, revealing the same challenges he had in 2008.

Meanwhile, one in five Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they would have preferred a nominee other than Obama, who didn’t face a primary challenge. They include one in four white voters.

That number, 25%, of white Democratic-leaning independents who say they’d prefer another nominee is a problem, because they could choose to stay home, along with the tiny minority of religious conservative African Americans, who oppose his marriage equality stance, even though it doesn’t change DOMA at all.

Women are listening to Mitt Romney on economics, because that’s the issue that will drive most votes.

Throughout Pres. Obama’s first term, he has had no economic message at all, opting instead for a reactionary strategy to Republican proposals, which now is met by Mitt Romney’s relentless repetition that he’s been successful, he has, knows how to create jobs, been there and destroyed some on the way, and Obama doesn’t know what he’s doing, with the success of the auto bailout proving otherwise. Unfortunately, Pres. Obama’s continual rightward shift benefits Republicans across the board.

It’s impossible to over emphasize the damage done by Pres. Obama’s lack of economic message to his own reelection efforts.

However, there’s still no evidence yet Mitt Romney has the political talent to beat an incumbent president, which is a very difficult thing to do.

Mitt Romney is dead wrong on economics, but he’s strong and sure in his messaging, something Pres. Obama has never been. There was another guy who Democrats didn’t think had a prayer to win the presidency and he was a strong and wrong as Romney, winning two terms. George W. Bush endorsed Mitt Romney on Tuesday.


Taylor Marsh, a veteran political analyst and former Huffington Post contributor, is the author of The Hillary Effect, available at Barnes and Noble and on Amazon. Her new-media blog www.taylormarsh.com covers national politics, women and power.

TM NOTE: The Newsweek cover is from Tina Brown’s cutting room floor and is by Oliver Munday, one of the ones that didn’t make the cut, via their Tumblr blog.