President Barak Obama has now crossed the “danger zone” threshold: according to a new Quinnipiac Poll, his approval rating has now fallen below 50 percent for the first time in the latest poll that shows a gradual declining trend as he loses the support of a chunk of independent voters.
The poll also finds that support for the war in Afghanistan has slipped — which suggest that if Obama’s long awaited policy announcement is to send more troops he could be caught in a political pincer between GOPers (who will label it Obama’s war and say he is doing too little, too much or incompetently handling it) and the Democratic left (which is increasingly a problem for Obama and the party since there are increasing signs the Democrats could splinter on some issues at a time when the many straying Republicans are returning to their party). The poll:
President Barack Obama’s job approval rating is 48 – 42 percent, the first time he has slipped below the 50 percent threshold nationally, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Support for the war in Afghanistan and approval of President Obama’s handling of the war also is down in the last month, and Republican support for the war is more than twice as strong as Democratic support.
In other words: Obama’s upcoming policy could have more support from Republicans (who won’t vote for him and the Democrats in elections) than Democrats (who historically have taught their party a lesson by staying home when they don’t like its policy on an issue, giving Republicans a chance to control environmental, educational and other policies and to appoint court justices to its liking).
American voters say 48 – 41 percent that fighting the war in Afghanistan is the right thing to do, down from 52 – 37 percent in an October 7 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University. Voters disapprove 49 – 38 percent of the President’s handling of the war there, down from 42 – 40 percent approval in October.
But voters say 65 – 29 percent, including 68 – 25 percent among military households, that eliminating the threat of terrorists operating from Afghanistan “is a worthwhile goal for American troops to fight and possibly die for,” compared to 65 – 28 percent last month.
Which means that if framed properly Obama might get some otherwise wavering Americans a reason to give a new policy a chance.
Voters say 47 – 42 percent that President Obama should send 40,000 more combat troops to Afghanistan as the military commanders on the ground have requested. Only 27 percent of Democrats want more troops, compared to 68 percent of Republicans. Similarly, 68 percent of Republicans, but only 31 percent of Democrats, think the United States is doing the right thing fighting in Afghanistan.
“Increasingly, the President finds himself with two different coalitions, one that backs him on domestic matters and a completely different one that backs him on Afghanistan. That could create a challenge to his considerable political skills,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
On the other hand, if all current polls are taken together — at this point in time — Obama is not yet in crisisland. Look at Pollster.com:
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.