New polls show Democratic Presidential nominee Senator Barack Obama widening his lead over Republican Sen. John McCain — signs of either an Obama convention bounce or that McCain’s pick of Gov. Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential running mate has not done what that Arizona Senator had may have hoped it would do.
Indeed, one development from one poll: balking Democrats are increasingly returning to their party fold.
Immediately after the Democratic convention it looked as if Obama got a chintzy bounce, which some attributed to McCain’s politically masterful announcement of a Vice Presidential pick immediately after the end of the Democratic convention. But polls how show some shifting numbers…which of course can shift again.
Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 30 through Sept. 1, finds Barack Obama leading the race for president with his highest share of support to date. Fully half of national registered voters now favor Obama for president, while 42% back John McCain.
Prior to now, no more than 49% of registered voters supported Obama for president in Gallup Poll Daily tracking. Still, Obama’s eight percentage point lead over McCain in the new poll falls one point shy of the lead he attained in late July after returning from a well-publicized trip to Europe and parts of the Middle East. At that time, Obama led by nine points, 49% to 40%.
McCain’s 42% support is well below his 48% top support level, recorded in late April/early May. It is just slightly better than the 40% he received at several points in July, and the 41% favoring him just last week while the Democratic National Convention was underway.
Gallup also sees another trend: some undecided voters have gone Obama’s way.
At 8%, the percentage of undecided voters is slightly lower than the 9% to 11% figures seen for most of August, and this is the lowest this figure has been since early June. This, in part, reflects movement of voters toward Obama over the course of the Democratic National Convention, a lead which has been sustained in subsequent days.
Rasmussen also sees a movement towards Obama, but notes that Palin made a good impression on many voters. What’s boosting Obama: wavering Democrats are now coming “home”:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 48% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 51%, McCain 45%. This is the highest level of support enjoyed by Obama at any point in Election 2008…..
Despite all the national attention that has been focused on Sarah Palin, public perceptions of the Alaska Governor have changed little in the last few days. She is still viewed favorably by just over half of all voters. A separate survey found that Obama is number one and Palin number two on the list of candidates people would like to meet.
Obama has strengthened his support among Democrats and now attracts the vote from 85% of those within his party. Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republicans support McCain.
The RCP average of polls has Obama ahead by a little more than 6 points but if you look at this page you’ll see that the trending is up for Obama on the polls that are listed.
UPDATE: TPM Election Central also has this list of other polls showing the numbers now shifting in Obama’s direction — but that could change after the GOP convention. Or it should…
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.