Will the current crisis in relations between the U.S. and Israel push the Jewish State into a corner – causing it to attack Iran, and forcing the U.S. to ‘fall into line’? With the Kremlin having just hosted talks among ‘the world’s leading diplomats’, Gazeta columnist Fyodor Lukyanov gives a Russian view of the Middle East landscape, and warns of some of the land mines laying in President Obama’s path.
For Gazeta, Fyodor Lukyanov writes in small part:
Barack Obama and his strategists really believe that to achieve success in the Middle East diplomacy, the United States should take a step toward the Arab world, especially after Bush completely ruined the relationship.
The United States hinged further talks on a cessation of settlement activity – and the Israeli authorities rejected it categorically. As a result, U.S. efforts greatly diminished by the end of last year. This, in turn, not only disappointed Arabs, it raised sharp questions about Obama’s credibility and capacity to withstand the Israeli onslaught.
The series of events during Biden’s visit gives Washington a chance to go on the offensive. To put a superpower’s second-in-command in such an embarrassing position is a bold step, regardless of the substance of the issue – and it must be paid for. … At the end of the day, Israel’s very existence depends entirely on American support. Now Washington has an opportunity to depict itself as terribly insulted, and make it clear to Israel that assistance isn’t unlimited or unconditional. … The insult inflicted on America also makes the U.S.-Israel lobby slightly more vulnerable, although seriously undermining its position is hardly realistic.
The Israeli government has room to maneuver, but it’s extremely limited. … In this situation, one can envision a scenario in which Israel puts it all on the line, possibly in the direction of Iran. The diplomatic process over Tehran’s nuclear program is stuck. There is talk of imposing sanctions, of which in fact, everyone is afraid – and it’s unclear what to do if they fail. Israeli military action against Iran would lead to a sharp deterioration in the region, and the U.S. will have no choice but to support its tested friend – against both Iran and its allies Hamas and Hezbullah, which will likely be used by Iran to deliver an asymmetric response.
Such a scenario is fraught with unpredictable consequences – but this constantly tightening knot of contradiction disguised as a diplomatic effort will sooner or later lead to an explosion. So Barack Obama may now have the opportunity to illustrate in practice the speech he made upon accepting the Nobel Peace Prize, in which the president defended the legality of “just” wars.
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