When President Obama first took office I indicated that I was going to try and adopt a policy of giving him time to have an impact on the economy. I was never happy when some on the left started blaming Bush for things the day after he took office and so I felt it fair to give Obama a chance. I chose to adopt the policy of the first President Bush by giving the new President a year before I blamed him for major impacts on the economy

At the same time I can hardly go a whole year without making any comments on the President and the economy, especially given the fact that the economy is the center focus of the new administration. This raises the question of what things he can be called to account for and what things he should not yet be blamed for.

I am still somewhat working through the issue but thought I would post my early thoughts for your consideration. It seems to be that the key is to differentiate between short term and long term economic indicators. While I am hardly an expert economist I do know that there are some things that can be affected by the events of today while others are the result of policies set into place months or even years ago.

Similarly some economic indicators look at the economy as it is today while others look to the way that the economy is expected to be in the future. In these areas I think we can find a way to decide which things should be laid at the White House door and which should not.

For example, unemployment figures came out last week showing a spike to over 8%. This is something that I do not think we can yet blame on Obama. Decisions made now about hiring or not hiring, choices about layoffs or closures are largely the result of prior policies. In that vein I do not think Obama is responsible for the problem.

Indeed given the complex factors at play in the current economy I think if you wanted to blame it on any administration it would have to be the Kennedy-through-Bush administration since most economists agree that our current mess is the result of decades of policies from both parties.

On the other hand I think when you look to the continuing slump in the stock markets, that is something that you can at least partly lay on Obama. The markets are very much affected by decisions of today and by attitudes on what the economy will do tomorrow. In both cases these are things within the control of the current administration. Of course there are also longer term factors at hand, but I don’t think you can say Obama is blameless here.

Of course as time goes on the picture will become clearer because we will be well in to the economic stimulus package and the policies of the Obama administration. But for now I think a two track attitude is proper, blaming the administration for the now, but not as much for the then.