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Whether we’re talking 2014 or 2016, the landscape doesn’t seem to look very welcoming to Republicans. Chris Cillizza, in an update, sees no clear wins except in the bought-‘n’-paid for districts.
Obama no longer offers any boost for Dems, nor any hope for a deal with Congressional Republicans, but it’s the Republicans who are taking the blame for not dealing with immigration issues and general mayhem. Obama v. the House?
The two sides are, essentially, locked in the late rounds of a prizefight; neither is strong enough to knock the other down, so they just sort of lean on each other and occasionally try to land a punch or two. ...Cillizza,WaPo
So… the midterms?
Since 1944, presidents with approval ratings lower than 50 percent have seen their party lose an average of 36 House seats, according to data from Gallup. ...Cillizza,WaPo
The Senate? Not a lock for either party.
So where’s the really bad news for Republicans? It turns up in the fundamentals. Republicans no longer have a lock on their support. In terms of demographics, they’re well behind. Old America is dying off; new America doesn’t like what it sees.
Blame for the failure to pass any sort of immigration reform in this Congress will fall at the feet of Republicans. As the Republican National Committee’s own autopsy after the 2012 election warned, failure to pass immigration reform is deeply problematic for the party’s attempt to woo Latino voters and win a majority in national elections. Top party leaders know how much trouble they are in on the issue, but the rank and file within the party remains vehemently opposed to any “amnesty” deal. …Cillizza,WaPo
At some point, Americans will realize that the immigration scene has changed considerably. Those who tend to keep their eyes fixed on our southern border (and that includes most of the media) seem wholly unaware of where, since early in this century, the immigrants are coming in from. Not so much Central America. And not so many disadvantaged.
Mexican immigration has rebounded some as the U.S. economy has improved, but it’s still well below its early-2000s peak, and few experts expect it ever to rebound fully. “It’s now history,” Dowell Myers, a University of Southern California demographer, said of the immigration wave of the early 2000s. “It’s the peak level of Latino migration.”
As immigration from Mexico has been falling, migration from other countries has continued to rise. In the past five years, the number of new immigrants (those in the country less than a year) from China has risen 37 percent, to more than 70,000. Immigration from India and other Asian countries is also increasing, though at a more modest rate.
As a result, Asia has surpassed Latin America as the dominant source of new immigrants to the U.S. Asia accounted for 45 percent of all new immigrants in 2012, compared to 34 percent for Latin America. Mexico is still the largest single country of origin for new immigrants, but its lead is shrinking fast: Mexico accounts for 14 percent of all new immigrants, down from 45 percent in 2000. India, meanwhile, now accounts for 12 percent, and China for 10 percent.
This shift has begun to change the makeup of the overall immigrant population. Immigrants from Latin America are, on average, poorer and less educated than native-born Americans. Asian immigrants are the opposite: They are, on average, wealthier and better educated — not just compared to other immigrants but also compared to native-born Americans. …Ben Casselman, 538