Of course these are only estimates and I can’t see them holding the vote unless they know for sure they have the numbers.
But according to the Hill, they are right on the edge with 37 Democrats voting No and at least 19 unclear, including 3 who voted No last time. If the 37 no votes stick and one of the three former No’s stay that way, then that is enough to defeat the bill.
Firedoglake.com also has it very close with 205 Yes, 207 No and 10 leaning No (which would be enough to defeat) plus 9 unknowns.
Again I can’t imagine them holding the vote unless they have the numbers and it may be more of a matter of deciding how many they can let vote no.
Personally I still think they should wait on the vote to give them time to discuss things with constituents, fine tune some of the issues raising concerns (I wouldn’t mind them addressing the Bronze Plan issue, the one thing that is keeping me on the fence).
I know some are opposed to delays because this is an important issue, and I understand that. On the other hand most of the major coverage provisions don’t take effect until 2014 and they could probably pass a separate bill with the things that do go into effect now (IE no pre existing conditions, preventative care, etc).
With the rest of it going into effect in 2014, it wouldn’t really hurt if they passed that in May or June.