We’ve run several examples of high-profile Republicans jumping ship and either writing-off Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain’s campaign or even saying they’re going to vote against him for varying reasons. Here’s a must-read list from the Jed Report of GOPers who are fleeing to the lifeboats..and it grows bigger by the day.
Will events change and will some of these Republicans jump back on? Keep in mind that this campaign has gone back and forth with abrupt shifts in both polling and the (often wrong) conventional wisdom. Today the Dow rallied 900 points — reportedly the biggest gain ever in its history. Does this mean McCain will have more luck getting his message — that is, whichever message his campaign is using at the moment — through to the American public?
The thoughtful progressive blogger Big Tent Democrat notes that a big rally does not a cure make:
Hard to say if this has turned the corner on the crisis. Credit markets were NOT open today. And hard times are clearly ahead for the economy. Recovering a third of your loss is not exactly champagne time.
Meanwhile, the McCain campaign is sending out contradictory messages that have even hung its surrogates out to dry. There is also no shortage of advice from Republicans upset over how the campaign is going. Even though polls have shown that the McCain negative attacks have basically raised McCain’s own negatives and made Obama seem more presidential, some, such as Tucker Carlson, are clamoring for him to raise the Reverend Wright issue, arguing a strong character attack could raise doubts so voters will vote against Obama.
But this kind of campaign — seemingly-lacking in ideology and policy specifics and increasingly centered on going after Obama’s character and raising doubts about him to get McCain in by an anti-Obama vote and not by a pro-McCain vote — is partially what’s upsetting the GOPers who are jumping what they perceive to be a sinking ship. And some conservative Republicans have made it clear that it isn’t just a sinking McCain ship, but ideologically they believe the McCain ship suffers from dry rot.
PREDICTION: The growing Republican defections and polls that general show Obama with a strong but not impossible-to-overcome lead mean that this week’s McCain-Obama debate will be the most important one of all. Will McCain come across as the 2000 bipartisan, issue-oriented McCain? The Washington Post’s Fred Hiatt suggests McCain might try a return to his more amiable, respectful, issue-oriented 2000 incarnation:
I certainly can’t prove that a McCain campaign built on respect and attention to issues would be faring better than the real thing. Without Sarah Palin to rally the base, and without the insidious questioning of Obama’s patriotism, McCain might be even further behind.
But he also might be doing better — and he might be happier, too.
Or will the debate showcase the 2008 campaign packaged by Karl Rove & Friends for McCain, running the same kind of campaign he once decried in 2000’s South Carolina primary? Will a rallying stock market neutralize the foreclosures, lack of jobs, shrunken retirement funds and whoppingly-prevalent view now that after 8 years of Republican Bush’s White House America is on the wrong track?
If McCain doesn’t hit a (cliche alert!) “home run” in this week’s debate, look for more Republican defections – perhaps even some GOPers running for office putting distance between themselves, President George W. Bush and McCain.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.