Jon Huntsman had a strong showing in tonight’s debate if you consider it from the perspective of appeal to moderate voters. If anyone from the pack of Republicans has a chance of appealing to both moderate Republicans and Democrats, it is probably Huntsman. Of course this means he has no chance to win the Republican nomination.
Many conservative Republicans, like Rush Limbaugh, believe that it was a mistake last election to nominate a moderate like John McCain and it seems unlikely the Republicans will do the same this time around. That would mean the Republican nominee this time will be more conservative than moderate and this is why Huntsman has no chance. However, a more conservative Republican nominee will also turn off moderate Democrats who might be disaffected with President Obama but would not be willing to jump all the way over to a traditional conservative Republican.
This scenario could be the perfect storm for the rise of a successful moderate candidate. (See also Matthew Dowd and John Podhoretz) With a very weak Democratic incumbent in President Obama (assuming it remains that way into next year) and a very conservative Republican nominee, a competent moderate candidate might actually be able to attract enough Democratic, Independent and Republican moderates to actually win the election.
Jon Huntsman, who has executive experience as a former Governor, who has international experience as the former Ambassador to China, and who has a strong reputation as a centrist having served as Ambassador under President Obama, has the best profile for a third party candidate that can attract enough voters from both sides of the political spectrum.
In essence, the scene could be set for a repeat of the 1980 election when John Anderson ran as a 3rd party candidate. However, with a different cast of characters playing the roles of incumbent, contender and 3rd party, the outcome might also be different.
Steve Suranovic is an Economics Professor at the George Washington University in Washington DC where he introduces students to the principles of microeconomics and international economics. His recent book is titled “A Moderate Compromise: Economic Policy Choice in an Era of Globalization” published by Palgrave-Macmillan.