So the networks haven’t yet made all of their projections but based on my analysis I am ready to make some calls

First, the Republicans will hold the US House of Representatives and could actually gain a few seats. This is based on the fact that most of the close races are in areas where the polls have closed already and the GOP is winning most of them. There just aren’t enough in play races left.

Second, the Democrats will hold the US Senate, and could very well gain a seat or two. This is based on the fact that the Democrats have won or are winning several of their close contests while the GOP is not doing as well in theirs.

I already called for an Obama win yesterday and am now revising to say Obama will likely reach or exceed 300 electoral votes (Florida looks to be tipping his way though you can never be sure where votes are coming from even in Democratic leaning areas). Virginia and North Carolina seem headed to Romney while New Hampshire and Ohio seem headed to Obama.

At the same time I don’t see any Obama landslide. Even if Florida and Virginia both go to Obama he will get 332 electoral votes compared to 206 for Romney. While this is certainly a comfortable win it’s less than he won in 2008 and I’ve long held the view that for a true electoral college landslide you need over 400 electoral votes and that certainly is not going to happen.

This looks to be similar to Carter in 1976 or Kennedy in 1960 in terms of electoral votes. A clear win but not a landslide.

Which likely means that we will have the same as we do now. A GOP House, a marginally Democratic Senate and a Democratic President (but one without a solid mandate like Johnson in 1964 or Reagan in 1984)

Partisanship graphic via shutterstock.com