You don’t have to be a professional number cruncher to know that with so many seats in Congress swapping parties, it also means that we’ve swapped people who have been there and done that (aka incumbents) for people who’ve either never been there and done that, or have only been there and done that in local settings under local or state procedures.
In other words, freshman orientation for the 112th Congress and for new governors will probably be more like a hangover than a party, with the old hands being like the sober, designated drivers who retained clarity, agility and the wherewithal to do whatever they want with the still dizzy pledges.
As someone who was elected for her first time last year and joined a city council whose “newest” member had been on for 10 years already (the other newly-elected with me had been on a city commission for eight years), I’ve been there and done that.
What kind of chaos – and lack of governing, expense of educating and attempt to convince them to “just listen to us! We’ll tell you all you need to know!” – should the frosh (and us mere voters) expect?
First, the numbers: Truly, no one with their thinking cap on should be surprised by these numbers in Tuesday morning’s pre-results First Read:
After tonight, we will see 17 to 21 new senators, meaning at least 40 out of the 100 members will be first-term senators after tonight. We’re going to see as many as 30 new governors. And we’ll probably get 80 to 100 new members of Congress. This is truly the big-picture story no one is talking about — how we’re set for the biggest year of political transition in recent memory.
Add to that portrait:
- the number of men who will win their races over women incumbents and forcing the first decline in the total number of women in Congress since the 1970s,
- the loss of Speaker Nancy Pelosi and
- the the second coming of John Boehner in her place, and we’ve got ourselves one enormous set of frosh.
My prediction is that what we will see is something unlike anything that anyone has talked about yet, though they may have thought about it but are in denial.
Trying to keep this totally nonpartisan, the good news is supposed to be that we have fresh blood, people more like us, a new influx of perspectives representing more and broader slices of life. I can live with that.
But the bad news is that those folks already in office and the ones returning are going to have the upper hand at every step of the way.
Read the whole post at Writes Like She Talks.