Sadly, Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman and the army are preparing to shoot live rounds at pro-democracy protestors even as Hosni Mubarak refuses to step down.

Mubarak’s obduracy will anger the White House but Suleiman may believe that he has tacit support from the Obama administration to put down protests before they snowball further. The gap between Suleiman and the demonstrators remains very large since they want not only Mubarak’s head but also a change of Constitution and parliament.

Suleiman, loyal as ever to Mubarak, seems determined to go ahead with quelling the protests with necessary force even if the White House disapproves. The current rumor on Cairo streets is that Obama feels democracy should not be brought to Egypt at a price that sacrifices the Israel-Egypt peace treaty.

Above all, enforcement on the Egyptian side should not become so lax that the Gaza border becomes porous enough for arms to pour into the hands of Hamas. The greater fear is that arms will come to the hands of tiny Al Qaeda-backed operators, sometimes just one or two persons, who could cause lethal damage with more accurate rocket fire. With the best of will, Hamas will not be able to stamp out all such militants.

Whether Egyptians ever see the light of democracy will depend heavily on Obama. The determining factor will be whether Obama puts enough pressure on Suleiman to force Mubarak to make the necessary constitutional changes and accept free and fair elections, monitored by the United Nations and European Union in September.

It remains possible that the protestors will simmer down if they see true guarantees for such an outcome six months from now. That is still a far prospect given Suleiman’s disdain for the ability of Egyptians to operate a democracy. However, a six month transition does allow time for adequate preparations by those who want to win parliamentary slots and enter a democratic government.

The transition would allow the Muslim Brotherhood to demonstrate its change of heart and strategy to be an honest participant in Egyptian democracy, rather than using it as a Trojan horse to grab all the reins of power.

But the first honest step would be to change the Constitution. Currently, it vests nearly dictatorial powers in the person of the President and both the ministerial cabinet and parliament are mere rubber stamps to his will. The issue now is whether Obama has the determination and means to truly neuter Mubarak even if he remains President while forcing Suleiman to organize genuinely free and fair elections. Anything less could open the road to more protests and more innocent blood being spilt by the beleaguered government.

If the Egypt-Israel peace is destabilized, Israel will be utterly exposed. It will no longer be able to conduct military actions in Gaza or even the West Bank with the current impunity. To protect itself, it may have to retain all of the Sinai to provide depth and a buffer zone.

The Egyptian generals are very aware of these possibilities. An utter collapse of the Mubarak administration might mean a war with Israel that Egypt would surely lose especially if there is prolonged confusion and weak governance in an unstable democracy. That country has never had democratic institutions. Before and after its unilateral independence from Britain in 1922, it has had authoritarian and corrupt kings or dictatorial and corrupt military-backed regimes led by former military officers.

So there is legitimate fear that a quick collapse of the current regime will cause political chaos and robber baron oligarchy within Egypt, which the army will not be able to control after they have taken hold. In recent weeks, the army has won respect from the people by standing neutral but everyone knows that it has propped up corrupt and very repressive rulers from its own brotherhood since the king was overthrown in 1952.

From the army’s viewpoint, it is wiser to act with necessary violence to disperse protestors than to allow a hasty transition that might open the door to another humiliating war with Israel and permanent occupation of the Sinai.