Is NBC’s Conan O’Brien starting to sag already in his new gig as Jay Leno’s late night replacement going up against Leno’s former NBC and late night nemesis David Letterman? And is this an unwelcome harbinger for the peacock? The L.A. Times reports some that there are some numbers that are likely to raise eyebrows — and possibly beads of sweat — at NBC:
On June 1, the premiere of “The Tonight Show With Conan O’Brien” began with a filmed piece that found the tall, skinny host, dressed in suit and tie, jogging across America to get to his new studio in Universal City.
But O’Brien might need to pick up the pace. After a strong start in the ratings, “Tonight” is already slipping behind CBS’ “Late Show With David Letterman,” the rival program that O’Brien’s predecessor Jay Leno defeated handily for years.
Not good news. Even if O’Brien gets solid younger demographics than Letterman, falling behind CBS’s show will create problems. American celebrate the celebrated and if news stories start coming out that Letterman is pulling ahead after all these years — Leno got the ratings but Letterman won the hearts of most TV writers — it could lead some former NBC late night viewers to resample Letterman.
On Tuesday night, Letterman edged past O’Brien in the overnight household ratings (3.4 rating/8 share vs. 2.9 rating/7 share) for the first time since O’Brien took over his show, according to data from Nielsen Media Research. More troubling for NBC, “Tonight” has also lost significant chunks of audience with each airing since the premiere, when it scored a hefty 7.1 rating/17 share. “Tonight’s” numbers since late last week have been well below Leno’s overnight average during the first three months of this year (4.1 rating/10 share). Letterman’s numbers, meanwhile, are within his usual range (3.0 rating/7 share for the first quarter).
Asking someone about late night comedians is like asking most people whether they like cats or dogs. It’s often an either or thing. And now — as always — there are also partisan and ideological reactions based on what a comedian may have said or not said in their topical jokes (a comedian is great when he blasts your foes but unfunny he he blasts your favorite). But each of them have their own style — and each of them are at the top of their game:
*Leno even before he hit the network had the reputation as one of the hardest working and nicest guys in the comedy business. In his rivaly with Letterman, he was often cast as the better corporate job seeker. He still performs regularly at a comedy club near LA.
*Letterman won the heart of Johnny Carson, who Leno replaced. He also is the modern heir to quirkish, humor originals such as the late TV pioneer Ernie Kovaks. His use of sarcasm, comedy “callbacks” (repeating a phrase or punch line often in a segment or throughout a show) and timing has often helped make his usually solid material shine even brighter (except when he hosted the Oscars when performance and material was way off).
*O’Brien has his own niche and generally attracted younger viewers. He is an excellent TV comedian with his own style and you can see why he was a writer on The Simpsons, a cartoon that has been on for years not because it’s a cartoon but because of has solid writing voice/animated performance. O’Brien is not a clone of Leno or Letterman.
It could be that it will take some sampling back and forth between Letterman and O’Brien before O’Brien finds and builds his audience in this slot. Or, it could work to his disadvantage. What is certain: in these days when broadcast networks are hurting due to losing viewership to cable, the Internet and modern technology — not to mention advertising from companies that have cut back or in some cases (i.e. automobiles) gone into bankruptcy — NBC won’t be able to afford to watch him trying and consolidate his audience for months and months.
The Times also notes that it’s understandable that the ratings could fall off, since his premiere was heavily promoted. Also, the paper points argues, if he does exceedingly well enough among younger views that may be enough for NBC. But, as noted here, if media coverage shows Letterman making big gains it could help CBS in the long run. The presumption would be that the new and younger kid on the black could become a bigger hit. If it turns out that didn’t happen, the narrative won’t help O’Brien.
UPDATE: O’Brien beat Letterman for the week among younger views and NBC is happy:
With final Nielsen Nationals ratings in hand, NBC says that Conan O’Brien’s first week on the air handily topped The Late Show with David Letterman. The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien averaged a 2.3 rating in the key 18-49 demo, compared to Letterman’s 0.9. O’Brien topped Letterman in all major categories each night of the week.
While the first week of any late night show is not necessarily a good barometer for future success, it does appear that O’Brien has support among younger viewers, particular those in the 18-34 demo. O’Brien rated a 2.2 rating in that demo his first week, compared to Letterman’s .6.
Letterman had his first apparent win over O’Brien Tuesday night, narrowly beating him in metered markets with a 3.4/8 compared to O’Brien’s 2.9/7.
The long run trendiing will be important.
Will O’Brien get more younger viewers to tune in on a regular basis? Will Letterman get some of the not-as-young Leno viewers who might not like Conan? And how will Leno fare with his five times a week show starting in the fall — and what impact will that have on people who watch late night? Will they tune in to O’Brien? Or want something different and see Letterman? or will some of those viewers feel they already watched a late night comedy talk show by watching Leno?
And what will Jon Stewart have to say about all of this (in early 21st century America that may matter most)?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.