Tweet of the Day: “Can we please get back to the important business of finding out whether Scott Brown is ruling out running for US Senate in Montana?” Veteran Boston political reporter David Bernstein (twitter.com/dbernstein)
By Scott Crass
Now that Max Baucus is departing, what’s next?
Montana is the “Land of Gold and Silver,” but for Democrats, it could only go so far. President Obama captured less than 42% in the state. While that’s better than all of Montana’s neighbors, few would quarrel that it is fairly deep in the red.
In that vein, paraphrasing Barry White, Brian Schweitzer would seem for Democrats to be their first,their last,their everything. But if he passes, the state has a strong Democratic bench, and the seat is not lost by any means. Tester last year survived in part because campaigns matter, and Rehberg displayed that even an R in state with strong lean can disintegrate.
What of Schweitzer? As recently as January, he did not seem enamored.
“Putting your feet in concrete in Washington, D.C.,” he said, “is probably not the place to change the world.” Unlike Dino Rossi, who nearly became Governor of Washington State, Schweitzer hasn’t yet questioned why he should leave a “nice gig for the cesspool of D.C.” And Rossi did end up taking the plunge (unsuccessfully). But while a challenge to Baucus was never seriously on the table, his retirement has changed things.
Today, Schweitzer was singing an entirely different tune. “Some people, when they see a pickup broke down alongside the road, they just drive on by,” he said. “I’m the type who likes to stop, and see if he can fix (the) thing. The U.S. Senate is the biggest, broke-down pickup in America.”
But there is one other thing Schweitzer has to consider and it involves the White House. Here’s his dilemma — and one that likely can’t be solved before he has to make a decision about running. If it’s clear Hillary will run for President, Schweitzer may find it easier to run for Senate. But if she doesn’t and he’s in the middle of a Senate campaign when she decides, he can’t simply abandon his bid and begin plotting a path to the White House? That’s probably the case even after the election. But Schweitzer has made no obvious moves to run for President and Montana insiders say it’s more likely than not that Schweitzer runs for the Senate.
For Republicans, Baucus’ departure leaves more questions than answers. Two candidates were already in the mix — ex-Senate Majority Leader Corey Stapleton and State Rep.Champ Edmunds, but DC officials had made it clear they were not happy.
Their dream candidate would be ex-Governor Marc Raciot. Raciot was a mega-popular Governor, reflected by the 79% he received in his quest for a second term, a record in recent years for a Governor who had major party opposition. It must be pointed out however that the opponent that appeared on the ballot was a late substitute for the original nominee who had pulled over to the side of the road as he was having a heart attack. He did not survive.
But Raciot has declined GOP entreaties on many occasions (as far back as taking on Baucus as 2002) and he’s comfortably ensconced in private practice. It’s not clear an open seat could take him out of. But it’s not clear Tea-Party would back him. Who they would back is freshman Congressman Steve Daines. He appeared uninterested against Baucus, but his language today suggests he’ll consider it. His decision may ultimately rest on Schweitzer.
Denny Rehberg, fresh from a loss against Tester (beating incumbents is not his strong suit) also ruled out a race against Baucus but could conceivably reconsider. But it appears the party is ready to move on.
Democrats biggest burden will be helping their eventual nominee build a warchest, not that it needs to come anywhere near close to what Baucus would have spent. But the open seat also presents opportunities. With Baucus certain to be tagged by his insider status,Democrats may be able to use fresh face to advantage.
And what does the “Max Factor”mean for Senate Dems? It may be a bad news, mixed news scenario. If Montana joins South Dakota and West Virginia in going R, grab Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana, the Dems would lose the Senate but probably can’t go below 49 seats (Franken and Shaheen for now are untouchable and I don’t see Hagan losing). And they hold out hope for either Georgia or Kentucky.
On the other hand,both parties will likely be engaging in hand-to-hand combat til end for at least 4 of those seats,so Ds may well hang on.
Still, Baucus’ decision gives them a tougher road, and at the very least, they can’t be happy. Whether their fears will be realized remains to be seen.