The following is a cross-post from PoliBlog:

There has been a meme in some rightward circles of late that the Tea Party movement is poised to burst onto the scene as a real third force in American politics as the result of some recent polling.

First, there was a Rasmussen poll a few weeks back that reported Tea Party Tops GOP on Three-Way Generic Ballot:

In a three-way Generic Ballot test, the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Democrats attracting 36% of the vote. The Tea Party candidate picks up 23%, and Republicans finish third at 18%. Another 22% are undecided.

(See Dave Weigel on that one).

Now, NewsMax is touting some numbers from a new NBC/WSJ poll:

According to the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday, 41 percent of likely voters now have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party Patriots. That compares to a 35 percent favorable rating for Democrats and 28 percent for the GOP.

The stunning conclusion: If the Tea Party Patriots were a political party – it is increasingly shifting its emphasis in a nonpartisan political direction – it would be the most popular party in America.

A stunning conclusion, indeed.

However, “favorability” isn’t the same thing as “electability” (or even popularity)—especially in the absence of an actual party, candidates, or campaign.

Beyond that, if actually look at the poll we find the following:

14a. How much do you know about the Tea Party movement??do you know a great deal about this, a fair

amount, just some, very little, or nothing at all?

Know a great deal ……………………… 7

Know a fair amount ……………………. 22

Know just some…………………………. 23

Know very little………………………….. 25

Know nothing at all …………………….. 23

Not sure…………………………………. –

The number of folks in the poll who know “a great deal” or even “a fair amount” sums to 29%, while those knowing “just some” to “nothing at all” sums to 71%.  The sum of “very little” to “nothing at all” is 48%.  As such, it is pretty clear that we cannot read much of anything into a plurality of respondents having a “positive” (20%) or “somewhat positive” (21%) view of the Tea Party movement.

(And note:  I think that a serious third party movement in the US would be both fascinating and healthy for our politics).