Yes, Donald Trump did a post-convention bump — the spurt in high numbers that most party nominees get right after their party’s convention. A new poll shows him now pulling ahead of soon-to-be official Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton:
Trump leads Clinton by three points, 48-45, after Clinton led Trump by 7 points, 49-42 in the CNN/ORC poll released earlier in July.
When third party candidates are introduced in the question in the CNN/ORC poll, it’s Trump 44, Clinton 39, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson 9, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 3.
Trump also saw a boost in favorability. In Monday’s CNN/ORC poll, 46 percent of voters had a positive view of Trump, up from 39 percent before the convention.
In the CBS poll released on Monday, Trump led Clinton by one point, 43-42, including voters who are leaning toward Trump or Clinton. When not including voters who only lean toward a candidate, Trump and Clinton tied 42-42, compared to a 40-40 tie in the CBS News poll released earlier in July.
When Johnson is added to the question, it’s Trump 40, Clinton 39, and Johnson 12.
Trump’s favorability also saw a bump in the CBS poll — 34 percent viewed Trump favorably, up from 30 percent earlier in July.
The Huffington Post’s Polling Editor Natalie Jackson points out what some experts point out each election year: the early polls following conventions are not necessarily indicative of what will follow:
As the Democratic National Convention begins on Monday, we’re going to start seeing results of polling conducted after the close of the Republican National Convention.
Don’t get caught up in those numbers. They could change very quickly.
Following the polls closely immediately after each convention is only good for one thing: Trying to gauge how much of a bump the candidate got. These polls don’t mean that the race, as a whole, has shifted substantially ? especially not before both conventions have taken place.
Conventions have often resulted in small to medium polling bumps for the candidate whose party just convened. The gatherings typically help unify the parties, particularly if there were divisive primaries ? which both Democrats and Republicans experienced this year. They also usually correspond to vice presidential candidate announcements, which might (or might not) help the candidate.
Even with the Republican Party’s somewhat unorthodox convention this year ? including some last-minute efforts to overthrow the presumptive nominee before the formal nomination vote ? Donald Trump could see some polling gains in the next few days.
But now the Democrats have the stage for a week. Hillary Clinton announced Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) as her vice presidential pick on Friday night. The attention is turning to the other side, and within a few days it could be Clinton’s turn to get a convention bump in the polls.
Her bump isn’t guaranteed either, though. A new email scandal for the DNC that resulted in party chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz’s resignation means the Democratic convention starts on shaky ground. Granted, that’s not as big a deal as substantial numbers of Republican delegates revolting against their own nominee, but it’s not a great start. Democrats also need to bring the party back together after a tough primary season.
So there’s the possibility of a post-convention swing in Trump’s direction, in Clinton’s direction, both or neither. Any of those swings could be temporary or permanent. The instability in the polls will be reflected in poll-based presidential forecasts as well, such as those published by FiveThirtyEight, The Upshot and the Princeton Election Consortium.
Here’s a graph showing Pollster’s average of polls as of today on the race for President. It now shows a virtual tie: