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Posted by on Feb 4, 2009 in Economy, Politics | 0 comments

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Did the Wall Street Meltdown Change the Election?

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Alan Abramowitz on Did the Wall Street Meltdown Change the Election? A Reply to James Campbell

According to James Campbell, the mid-September financial crisis hit the 2008 presidential election like a bolt out of the blue, transforming it from a horserace in which John McCain had a real chance of victory into a one-sided contest in which Barack Obama enjoyed a decisive advantage. Campbell’s claim is another version of the Wall Street meltdown theory that has been advanced by a number of conservative commentators since the November election. It is easy to understand why this explanation appeals to conservatives: it implies that Barack Obama’s victory did not result from any long-standing, deep-seated disillusionment with the Bush Administration or the Republican Party, but was simply an emotional reaction to an unforeseen crisis. Moreover, the Wall Street meltdown theory has a particular attraction for Professor Campbell–it provides him with a convenient explanation for the failure of his own forecasting model which, based largely on the results of a single trial heat poll taken a few days after the Republican convention, predicted a decisive victory for John McCain…

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