Wil Robinson has an interesting report on a new effort to convince Afghan farmers to switch from growing opium poppies to pomegranates to export to world markets. The man spearheading the effort thinks that, not only does Afghanistan produce “best pomegranates in the world,” but sales of pomegranates on the global market could outstrip the value to Afghanistan of the opium industry.

Robinson sees problems, however:

First we must put aside the obvious economics behind supply and demand, principles of free trade, and international competition that would drive pomegranate prices down should a massive influx on world markets take place. There is also the fact that the trees only produce one crop a year (poppies produce two). But more importantly, pomegranate trees take 4-5 years to mature before you can harvest anything. That’s a long-term investment in the future.

If pomegranate farming could provide Afghanistan with a sustainable, long-term prospect for economic growth, then it may not be a bad plan. But a vast drug network doesn’t go down without a fight. The model will never fully develop unless there is some economic assistance in the short term to provide the basic infrastructure the country needs, as well as a developed security apparatus to protect farmers against the inevitable backlash.

Cross-posted at Ablogistan.