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Poll: Obama’s Lead Over McCain Is Widening
New polls show Democratic Presidential nominee Senator Barack Obama widening his lead over Republican Sen. John McCain — signs of either an Obama convention bounce or that McCain’s pick of Gov. Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential running mate has not done what that Arizona Senator had may have hoped it would do.
Indeed, one development from one poll: balking Democrats are increasingly returning to their party fold.
Immediately after the Democratic convention it looked as if Obama got a chintzy bounce, which some attributed to McCain’s politically masterful announcement of a Vice Presidential pick immediately after the end of the Democratic convention. But polls how show some shifting numbers…which of course can shift again.
Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 30 through Sept. 1, finds Barack Obama leading the race for president with his highest share of support to date. Fully half of national registered voters now favor Obama for president, while 42% back John McCain.
Prior to now, no more than 49% of registered voters supported Obama for president in Gallup Poll Daily tracking. Still, Obama’s eight percentage point lead over McCain in the new poll falls one point shy of the lead he attained in late July after returning from a well-publicized trip to Europe and parts of the Middle East. At that time, Obama led by nine points, 49% to 40%.
McCain’s 42% support is well below his 48% top support level, recorded in late April/early May. It is just slightly better than the 40% he received at several points in July, and the 41% favoring him just last week while the Democratic National Convention was underway.
Gallup also sees another trend: some undecided voters have gone Obama’s way.
At 8%, the percentage of undecided voters is slightly lower than the 9% to 11% figures seen for most of August, and this is the lowest this figure has been since early June. This, in part, reflects movement of voters toward Obama over the course of the Democratic National Convention, a lead which has been sustained in subsequent days.
Rasmussen also sees a movement towards Obama, but notes that Palin made a good impression on many voters. What’s boosting Obama: wavering Democrats are now coming “home”:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 48% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 51%, McCain 45%. This is the highest level of support enjoyed by Obama at any point in Election 2008…..
Despite all the national attention that has been focused on Sarah Palin, public perceptions of the Alaska Governor have changed little in the last few days. She is still viewed favorably by just over half of all voters. A separate survey found that Obama is number one and Palin number two on the list of candidates people would like to meet.
Obama has strengthened his support among Democrats and now attracts the vote from 85% of those within his party. Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republicans support McCain.
The RCP average of polls has Obama ahead by a little more than 6 points but if you look at this page you’ll see that the trending is up for Obama on the polls that are listed.
UPDATE: TPM Election Central also has this list of other polls showing the numbers now shifting in Obama’s direction — but that could change after the GOP convention. Or it should…
22 Responses to “Poll: Obama’s Lead Over McCain Is Widening”
[...] Poll: Obama’s Lead Over McCain Is Widening [...]
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Sil?
Oh Chris, let me try:
“This poll just illustrates how angry women are at the DNC for passing up Hillary. We have been so insulted that not only are going to support the gutsy, ballsy Sarah Palin we are going to do so in a way that shows how upset we are about BIG OIL.
“
We are pretending to be men when we answer the pollster's questions then we will revert back to women and tell Big oil to take a hike by voting for gutsy Palin. If only the DNC had listened to us.
How's that?
Excellent, Kathryn!
I'm skeptical of short-term polls. Let's see how this looks next week after it all settles in.
The race was VERY steady for two months. Now there is major movement to Obama. Is it a brief bump or genuine shift? We'll have to wait.
Thanks Kathryn. I was going into withdrawal.
I agree with Elrod, once both conventions are over we'll get a better picture.
Wait at least to the end of the GOP convention and another week would be better still. Let's see how much these two graphs change:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08…
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08…
I'm skeptical of polls too. My hope would be the poll portends an uncharacteristic trend toward common sense among the fence-sitting crowd, but I know better then to treat it as more than a conversation piece.
+1 to what DLS & others are saying, too early yet. After the RNC convention would seem a better time for more accurate polling.
I am starting to think that we may see Palin drop out of the race if things continue to spiral outwards about her background.
I'd actually like to see a Pew poll also be released that describes views on Palin.
Palin surprised and impressed me and has done this for others who want someone good as a VP and who want a chance at some reform and reduction of federal spending, in addition to others (“social conservatives” and especially the Religious Right) who seem to like her, too. Even on notoriously lefty sources like NPR, the word from the convention (and from callers who manage to be Also Heard) is that many people like her and feel better about McCain and the GOP now.
If she drops out (an extreme assumption at this time!), it probably dooms McCain.
By supporting Ted Stevens and the Bridge to Nowhere?
Alaska receives something like $1.80 in Federal spending for every $1 they pay in taxes. I wouldn't look toward Alaska for lessons about fiscal conservatism.
DLS : “…notoriously lefty sources like NPR”
Yeah, NPR is about as unbalanced as, say… The Christian Science Monitor! What's your idea of the center, Hugh Hewitt? Redstate?
Here, have a reality check – it's on me!
http://presidentialwatch08.com/index.php/map/
Good grief…
I think it's quite obvious that DLS is correct — Repubs, especially social conservatives and fiscal conservatives, are delighted with the Palin pick. Even several of my friends who I consider pretty reasonable folks fall into that category. But I have to confess that I find it rather odd. How can you be delighted about someone you know precious little about? I can understand thinking… “gee, she sounds interesting. I like what I hear. Tell me more.” But delighted?
And it's not a question of experience per se. A person can be thin in that category as long as they're stronger in others. The thing about Palin is, most of us have no idea about the full measure of the woman. But even that would also be fine if it was obvious that McCain did. But it isn't obvious. He hardly met her before he picked her. And there are significant questions as to which she was vetted. That's not a reflection on her, it's a reflection on him. She might be a very capable individual, full of all kinds of positive traits and experiences, however typical or atypical, that may bear on her fitness to be VP (and possibly P). But I don't get the impression that even McCain was fully convinced of that when he picked her. And that, to me, is important.
I think that McCain is receiving more support because of his choice of Palin. The religious base is pleased with her. This might also explain why McCain received a lot of money the last few days- the rightwingers who weren't happy with McCain were energized by his pick of Palin, threw their support behind him and gave money that they previously had withheld.
But in order to win the election one needs the support of independents. Given that Palin's views appeal to the religious right (teaching creationism in school, pro-life, abstinence only and no sex eduction in schools, etc.) most independents will lean towards the Dems' views.
These new independents will not be as enthusiastic as the Democratic base and may not even donate to Obama, but I feel that in the end they will vote for Obama. I would even wager to bet that some women and independents who were initially energized over Palin will swing to Obama as Palin's views become more widely known.
It will be interesting to see if camp McCain tries to moderate Palin's positions…. He may because he understands that he does have the religious vote wrapped up and he does need the independents to win.
Just my opinion….
The only poll that is accurate is the one on Nov. 4.
Lets face it folkes, its going to be a close election. The polls that really matter are the ones in the swing states and among moderate voters there. Right now they are really close.
Colorado Obama +0.4
Nevada McCain +1.0
Michigan Obama +4.3
Ohio McCain +1.2
Pennsylvania Obama +5.0
Florida McCain +3.1
As a lifelong Michigan resident, I will be surprised if McCain wins our state. I expect him to do well on the west side (Grand Rapids for example), in smaller conservative towns (Midland for example), and in many rural areas, but overall I think Obama will pull it out. McCain has some left-over notoriety here from the 2000 primary, but that particular McCain might as well be from a parallel universe compared to who he seems to be now.
I would also echo Rico's point; I too can understand why conservatives would express great “interest” in Palin, but to unequivically express “delight”? They don't even know her well enough to know if there is reason to be delighted. All that response does is show a high level of disingenuousness. I'm happy she is a family person, a self-described hockey mom, and an acheiver… but we're talking about a possible president here.
I agree with Leonidas re: swing states.
Sarah Palin? C'mon, its pandering a la Geraldine Ferraro. How can the mayor of a town of 9000 people be qualified to be POTUS? If Ross Perot called Arkansas a “mom and pop shop” what the heck is Alaska? A kiosk?
Without the tutoring could Palin beat a freshman poli sci major in a test on foreign leaders, capitals, etc etc?
kia – you seem to be arguing against yourself. If you are going to throw the Perot Arkansas quote out there, then you seem to be saying 'mom and pop' candidates make great Presidents (from the Democratic point of view, at least)
Kia, if Palin lasts long enough to have a debate with Biden, we'll get the opportunity to find out how developed her geo-political skills are.
“Good grief” — you left out once more the misuse of “reactionary.” Slipping, McCain-style?
Honestly, I rather think it;s all a put on but what else would you expect them to say and how else would you expect them to act? The same way HIllary had to put her feelings aside for the unity of the party, so do they. Do you really expect the Reps. to publicly declare their amazement and disbelief at McCain's choice? I'd love to be a fly on the wall because that's the only way you will get the truth from Reps. about McCain's choice, i.e. his judgement.