There’s this really, really big elephant in any room where negotiations take place concerning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It is, of course, the West Bank settlements. In yesterday’s Jerusalem Post there was an article on a statement by the former chief of staff of Ehud Barak, Gilad Sher, which outlined what he believed would be necessary for a viable two state solution to be implemented.

“Any outline of two states for two people will involve the evacuation of settlements,” Sher said.

He estimated that this would involve the uprooting of 100,000 people, slightly less than one third of the West Bank Jewish population.

It’s not possible at this time for Israelis and Palestinians to reach a final status agreement, Sher said. The gaps between them can be bridged, but not now, he said.

The emphasis is mine because I just don’t believe this statement will be true anytime soon. In fact I believe that given that no Israeli government in recent history has been able to even stop construction of new settlements and expansion of existing ones successfully it will be several decades before Israel might successfully freeze settlement growth, much less evacuate any settlements. Given that, it becomes an open question as to whether there will be any ability to remove Israelis who were born and raised in the West Bank. And if they can’t do that there can’t be a viable Palestinian state which calls into question whether real peace is possible until after the grandchildren of the current Israelis and Palestinians are dust. Possibly well after that.