UN injects hope for peace in Yemen but the situation remains volatile

United Nations mediators have helped to renew a truce in Yemen, injecting a sliver of hope for peace against the miserable backdrop of death and destruction created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This hope also improves prospects for President Joe Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia to meet crown prince Mohammed bin Salman for the first time later this month .

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres welcomed an agreement Thursday for renewing the current truce in Yemen for an additional two months under the same terms as the original agreement.

“Since the (first) truce came into effect on 2 April 2022, Yemenis have experienced real and tangible benefits, including a significant reduction in violence and civilian casualties, an increase in fuel deliveries through Hudaydah port, and the resumption of international commercial flights from Sana’a for the first time in almost six years,” Guterres said.

This renewal of truce was won after very difficult UN-sponsored negotiations between the Yemen government, sustained by the military and financial power of Sunni Saudi Arabia, and the Shia Muslim Houthi rebels aided by Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

Saudi Arabia is the main power broker in Yemen and Lebanon and is leading the fight against the Houthis, which had turned Yemen into the world’s worst humanitarian tragedy until Ukraine.

In February 2021, just days after becoming President, Biden announced he was ending US support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen and reversed an earlier Trump-era decision to designate the Houthi rebels as terrorists.

Partly in response, the angry Saudis turned to China, India and other Asian countries to sell their oil, and invest and do business. This is still a Saudi priority pushed personally by the crown prince. They repeatedly turned down US requests to increase oil production to slow down rising oil prices.

The Yemen truce renewal for 60 days may be a sign that Mohammed bin Salman is leaning towards compromise and is seeking better relations with Biden, who before becoming President had declared the kingdom a “pariah” with “no redeeming social value”.

Earlier this week, the Saudi’s also steered the extended OPEC Plus cartel including Russia to substantially increase oil production for two months to dampen rising inflation in the US and Europe.

Experts say inflation’s continuation could seriously dent confidence in the Biden administration and harm the prospects of Biden’s Democrats in the November congressional elections. It could also cause social unrest in Europe and break the coalition that Biden has built so painstakingly to punish Russia’s Vladimir Putin for invading Ukraine.

Relations between the Saudis and Biden’s White House have been strained since Biden became President partly because of his disdain for Saudi autocracy and its blatant human rights violations, including the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

But the energy crisis stemming from the Ukraine-Russia war is forcing the Biden administration to again seek Saudi help to ease oil prices because it is the only major producer capable of increasing production and exports almost instantly.

Welcoming the truce’s extension, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken declared that “The United States remains committed to an inclusive, durable resolution to the conflict that alleviates the suffering of Yemenis, that empowers them to determine the future of their country without foreign interference, and that addresses Yemenis’ calls for justice and accountability.”

The US has been working very hard to rebuild bridges with Saudi Arabia. The National Security Council’s Middle East Coordinator Brett McGurk and the State Department’s Senior Adviser for Global Energy Security Amos Hochstein have traveled to Saudi Arabia four times since December 2021. Their work seems to be bearing fruit both for Yemen’s unfortunate people and US-Saudi relations.

UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg said the truce renewal represents a significant shift in the trajectory of the war. But to deliver on its potential requires additional steps, particularly on road openings and commercial flight operations. None of those can happen without Saudi cooperation.