Pakistan is pressing its military battle against Taliban forces that seek to destabilize its government — and the region — into Taliban strongholds. in recent recent weeks, Taliban forces have staged a series of stunning attacks and now the Pakistan government seems to be saying in effect “it’s our turn.”
Meanwhile, in Washington, recent Taliban bombings in Pakistan have been so dramatic that analysts say the violence is likely to be taken into account when President Barack Obama makes his final decision on what course to take in the Afghanistan war.
Pakistan moved large contingents of troops into the Taliban stronghold of South Waziristan on Saturday, beginning a long-anticipated ground offensive against Al Qaeda and Taliban militants in treacherous terrain that has overwhelmed the army in the past, the Pakistani Army said.
Military spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas said the attack was launched from three directions.
The operation is the most ambitious by the Pakistani Army against Taliban militants, who unleashed a torrent of attacks against top security installations in the past 10 days in anticipation of the assault. The militants’ targets included the army headquarters where planning for the new offensive has been under way for four months.
The United States has been pressing the Pakistani Army to move ahead with the campaign in South Waziristan, arguing that it was vital for Pakistan to show resolve against the Qaeda-fortified Pakistani Taliban, which now embraces a vast and dedicated network of militant groups arrayed against the state, including those nurtured by Pakistan to fight India.
The officials said the fighting there would probably not help the American effort in Afghanistan to a great extent since the Taliban stronghold in Southern Waziristan does not have a border with Afghanistan.
According to the UK’s Telegraph, Pakistan forces are meeting with heavy Taliban resistance:
Four soldiers were killed and 12 others wounded when their advance from Shakai ran into resistance in Sharwangi, one of the first areas of Mehsud’s territory they reached, a local administration official said. He added that the Taliban were using “heavy weapons” against the army.
An army official confirmed that soldiers had already met resistance within hours of the start of the operation, which has been planned for months and follows weeks of air and artillery strikes.
A senior government official said that the government and party leaders gave the military full backing on Friday, vowing to weed out militants and restore the writ of the state.
The army has said about 28,000 soldiers are in place to take on an estimated 10,000 hard-core Taliban. About 500 commandos arrived in the region on Friday, security officials said.
The army has stepped up its air and artillery attacks in recent days to soften up the militants’ defences while civilians have been fleeing.
This is the offensive that the U.S. government was hoping for, made necessary by the surge of terrorist attacks in Pakistan over the past few weeks. As Jane Perlez notes, the Pakistani Army has tried this three times before and failed–but this time the stakes are higher, given the recent advances the Taliban have made.
The operation, in fact, raises more questions than it answers. Here are two: What does this say about the Pakistani military’s long-standing relationships with militant groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Haqqani Madrasa and Mullah Omar’s Quetta shura? Does General Kayani believe he can walk the line between terrorist groups he likes and those he doesn’t?
Second question: What influence does this have on the war in Afghanistan? It could go either way. It could force many of the terrorists back across the border in Afghanistan…or it could convince some of the foreign fighters, including the leadership of Al Qaeda, that Pashtunistan has gotten too hot for comfort and it’s time to move elsewhere–like Yemen or Somalia (which are more exposed and accessible, and probably wouldn’t be safe for the very top leadership of Al Qaeda)?
In any case, this offensive, along with the pending Afghan runoff election, are two factors that will be integral to President Obama’s strategic decisions about the future of our military efforts in the region.
The Pakistan blog Five Rupees says there are two ways of looking what is going on in Pakistan right now:
The optimistic version, predictably forwarded by the government, is that this is a last desperate stand from the Taliban and their allies, in advance of the Army assault in Waziristan. The logic is that this wave of violence is basically an attempt to ward off the impending attack. In this view, the militants wouldn’t be doing this if they didn’t think the Waziristan foray would cost them dearly, and perhaps even succeed in wiping out the movement, or at least debilitating it to the point where it no longer presents a viable threat to the state and its citizens.
Though I think that much of this thinking is, in fact, wishful thinking (and so not real thinking at all), there is something to be said for the fact that the timing of this escalation coincides perfectly with the military offensive. As such, we must conclude that it is not a coincidence. It follows then, by logic, that the militants are sending a warning to the military (and, I suppose, the civilian) leadership. And who would send a warning if they weren’t worried?
On the other hand, there is a pessimistic view of the latest attacks too. Namely, that the TTP is adding to its organizational capabilities by allying with militant groups based in southern Punjab, like Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Jaish-e-Muhammad. For the most part, these groups have stayed outside the militant-army battle of the last few years, basically by not attacking representatives of the state and therefore not attracting the ire of the government — though it bears noting that such organizations are primarily responsible for (a) the sectarian violence directed, primarily, against Shias, and (b) cross-border violence directed against India.
If this view is true, Pakistan, if possible, has an even bigger problem on its hands than once thought. For one thing, it stretches resources beyond the breaking point. Remember that the reason/excuse given by the government for not tackling non-Taliban militant groups (such as LeT, a move always guaranteed to royally piss the Indians off) is that they weren’t actually at war with the state, so why go after them if such a conflict would attract resources away from the “real” war? The government can no longer enjoy making that distinction, which is an exceedingly good thing in the medium and long term, but hugely damaging in the short term because it forces, in effect, a two-front war. And you can ask the Germans how those work out.
Meanwhile, rumors are swirling, like this one noted by the Pakistani blog Buzz:
I don’t know if you have heard about this or not but there has been quite a lot of chatter about the U.S private security agency Blackwater USA. entering Pakistan. Like most things U.S led, there is a shroud of secrecy and controversy surrounding it.
For those of you who do not know what Blackwater USA (now XE LLC.) is, it is considered to be the worlds worst mercenary force. Official statements say it is a tactical training facility which deals in private personal security, military and policing services. Blackwater (Xe) is currently one of the top three largest U.S State Department contractors. They were in Iraq to provide security to the U.S officials and are still said to be present there illegally. They have an array of divisions that cater to all kinds of security services.
Anyways, that is a brief history of what Blackwater (Xe) is. Moving on to the point of this post, Recently there has been news of the U.S government purchasing large areas of land and housing complex in Islamabad which are believed to be for Blackwater (Xe) personnel to be stationed in the Pakistani capital. Though there is a state of total and complete denial from the Pakistani government about any such actions taking place on Pakistani soil, the public is not as blind as the government would like them to be.
Reports of Blackwater entering Karachi have been quite controversial. It is said that Blackwater (Xe) has acquired bunglows in Defence Housing Authority (D.H.A) Phase VII and Gulshan-e-Iqbal to start their operations in Karachi.
Renowned Pakistani historian Ayesha Jalal has a long must-read piece in the Times of India. Here is a small part of it:
Is Pakistan losing its war on the Taliban given the string of recent attacks on targets such as the heavily guarded army headquarters in Rawalpindi?
I would not say Pakistan is ‘losing’ the war against the Taliban. What these attacks underline is the continuing threat presented by the Taliban and the inadequacies of security arrangements in place to counter them. But then suicide attacks are difficult to counter. The upsurge in the attacks is meant as a warning against the military operation in North and South Waziristan, which is now underway. So, at one level, these are desperate acts by the Taliban to underscore their ability to strike Pakistan’s security forces. To conclude from this that the Taliban are winning the war militarily is a leap of faith.
What about the success claimed by Pakistan in its Swat operations?
There has been some ‘success’ but the war against the militants continues . There are no simple switch-on and switch-off methods to deal with the complex problem, whether in Swat, Malakand or Waziristan.What’s the way out for Pakistan from the mess it finds itself in?
It will have to fight the militants and establish the writ of the state at all costs before turning to building infrastructure in these troubled areas of the northwest, so that the hapless people affected by decades of militancy and the recent horrific violence can have relative peace and prosperity.
Read it in full…
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.