In an “analysis” that opens with unmitigated opinion, on Thursday the New York Times claimed:
A new series of House polls by The New York Times and Siena College across four archetypal swing districts offers fresh evidence that Republicans are poised to retake Congress this fall as the party dominated among voters who care most about the economy.
The polling data the writers linked to do not support the claim.
Almost ignored by the Times writers, voters told pollsters unequivocally that they would “rather vote for a candidate who thinks Joe Biden won the 2020 election.”
First, polling data show that each of the four contests is (probably) within the margin of error (MOE), which is huge: more than 5% for each race.
No GOP candidate leads.
In two races — Kansas 3rd and Pennsylvania 8th — the Democratic candidates have a lead that may be slightly greater than the margin of error, depending on the rounding used to report their lead.
If this November’s congressional elections were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for…
Second, the writers claim that the GOP “dominated among voters who care most about the economy.” That may be true, but the published cross-tabs show no data for that claim. Given that it would be a sub-sub group, the MOE would be even greater than for the published data.
It is highly unlikely that the polling data support that claim.
Finally, the Times buried the data about Biden v Trump as though it were an after thought.
Since when has 22% been “about one-third”? Especially since that 22% could have been <17%?
Around one-third of voters in every district said it didn’t matter whether a candidate thought Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump won in 2020, including around half of independents. Relatively few voters preferred a candidate that believed Mr. Trump won the election, though the 22 percent who said as much in Ms. Herrell’s district was the highest of any of the four polls.
Would you rather for a candidate who thinks…
This fiction aligns with the paper’s October 17th narrative that “independents, especially women, are swinging to the G.O.P.” The cross-tab results no longer show the much larger MOE; instead, the page contains only the main survey MOE of 4%. Last week, that “independent women” data point had an MOE of 12%
Here’s the thing: the @nytimes poll last week was a statistical tie.
It had a *4% margin of error* on the full results and 12% on the MOE on the ? like ‘independent women shift red.’
— ??Kathy E Gill | mastodon.social/@kegill (@kegill) October 27, 2022
The election is about the future of the country. Major news media like the NYT seem to be cheering for our downfall by their news choice and slant.
By the way? All of the writers and editors and managers at the Times need to read A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper
Known for gnawing at complex questions like a terrier with a bone. Digital evangelist, writer, teacher. Transplanted Southerner; teach newbies to ride motorcycles. @kegill (Twitter and Mastodon.social); wiredpen.com