The GOP will be dragged to that reality kicking, screaming and gerrymandering
In a former life, I was enthralled with demographic projections as I studied for my certified association executive credentials. I had not seen statistics used to forecast sociological changes that leaders should consider when planning an organization’s future.
It remains an important field of study, especially in the world of politics. For example, I’m sure you’re aware that White people are a minority of the world’s population. The global majority accounts for about 85% of us and does not include White folks (or Jewish ones).
Did you know that White people are also projected to be a minority in the United States in about 20 years?
We Americans with a Eurocentric heritage may not have thought of ourselves as anything other than the majority we have been. But that position is fragile, and the political pushback to its loss is nascent and fierce. (Let’s not examine the fact that Spain is European.)
Majority-minority is not a topic that gets direct attention from national media. But it sure gets an indirect acknowledgment with the century-old replacement conspiracy theory trotted out by MAGA Republicans. Think back to the Charlottesville rally during the first Trump Administration: “you (or Jews) will not replace us!”
Yet there is no “invasion,” President Trump.
There is no puppeteer encouraging the world’s “tired …poor [and[ huddled masses yearning to breathe free” to “invade” the United States. Instead, the United States is seen as a beacon of progress, despite our checkered past in the face of prior refugee crises.
Now there are a confluence of factors. Education and economic opportunities for women lead to fewer children, and the US is no exception. White birth rates have fallen faster than non-Whites. Most immigrants are not White: they come from Latin America and Asia in this, the third wave of immigration to the United States.
We can expect additional immigration pressure from refugees as climate change makes low and middle latitudes uninhabitable due to ocean flooding and excessive heat. That geography is not particularly White.
And there is a cadre of White men determined to beat back this inevitable evolution with every breath in their bodies (as they also claim climate change to be a hoax).
I asked myself: if the US is on track to become a minority White country, which states are leading the way? Might they lean Democratic rather than Republican? Kinda sorta. Are they gerrymandered? Yup.
2024, White-alone (non Hispanic) population
- Hawaii – 20.7%
- California – 33.6%
- New Mexico – 36.1%
- DC – 37.4%
- Texas – 38.7%
- Nevada – 44.2%
- Maryland – 46.4%
- Georgia – 48.8%
- Florida – 50.6%
- New Jersey – 50.8%
- Arizona – 52.4%
- New York – 53.2%
- Mississippi – 55.4%
- Louisiana – 56.1%
- United States – 57.5%
The country is 57.5% White and 50.4% female. But Congress? State legislatures?
- Women: about 29% of Congress; about 33% of state legislatures
- White: about 74% of Congress; about 70% of state legislatures
California’s state Senate is half women; Texas, 29%.
And Congressional delegations? Here’s a sample:
- Hawaii – (4), 2 White male, two non-White female
- California – (54), 39 male, 15 female, 19 non-White (almost half)
- New Mexico – (5), 1-of-3 White male, 1-of-2 White female
- Texas – (40), 33 male, 7 female, 7 non-White (17.5%)
- Nevada – (5), 1-of-2 White male, 3-of-4 White female
When a state population is less than 40% White, its Congressional delegation should not be 82.5% White. That’s possible only with gerrymandering, Texas. Take a look.
What is going on with the GOP redrawing state Congressional maps mid-decade may be a novelty this year, but don’t expect it to stop given the demographic pressures facing the country. Ditto the crackdown on immigrants with anything other than White skin.
We are witnessing a new revolution, and it ain’t pretty.
The Supreme Court, composed of mostly White men, seems determined to adhere to White supremacy in the face of demographic change. In that, it joins the Congressional majority, who gifted DHS with almost $30 billion for ICE in fiscal 2025. And the deportation efforts are not towards violent criminals but Hispanic gardeners and carpenters. That’s by design.
So buckle up. It’s imperative that Democrats retake Congress in 2026 to serve as a brake on the GOP’s war on minorities. Systemic racism is alive and well; it will die only with concerted, unified effort.
This first appeared at Substack.
Known for gnawing at complex questions like a terrier with a bone. Digital evangelist, writer, teacher. Transplanted Southerner; teach newbies to ride motorcycles. @kegill (Twitter and Mastodon.social); wiredpen.com