A Siena College-conducted poll commissioned by the New York Times finds President Joe Biden’s numbers falling and former President Donald Trump’s rising.
Joe Biden’s disapproval rating reaches new high, according to new poll.
The president has a 47% disapproval rating, but it’s a mixed bag when accounting for ‘double haters’ – those who dislike Trump too
Strong voter disapproval of Joe Biden’s job performance has reached 47% – the highest negative polling number at any point in his presidency, according to a survey published on Saturday.
The Siena College-conducted poll, commissioned by the New York Times, showed that Biden currently lags behind likely Republican candidate Donald Trump 43% to 48% in registered voters nationally.
The survey found that just one in four voters (24%) think the country is moving in the right direction – a key question in the run-up to a national election – and more than twice as many voters said that Biden’s policies had personally hurt them than those who said they had helped.
Of the two-thirds of the country that feels the nation is headed in the wrong direction, the poll found that 63% said they would vote for Trump.
…..Nineteen per cent of voters said they disapproved of both men, but among them Biden is slightly less hated, with a spread of 7% between Biden (38%) and Trump (45%). That spread, according to the Times, is significant: the candidate less disliked by “double haters” has won the last two presidential elections.
Those findings may bolster what Democrat and Republican pollsters drew from recent primary voting.
In South Carolina last week, the number of primary voters who backed Republican contender Nikki Haley but said they would never vote for Trump is perceived to represent the margin that will ensure Trump’s defeat to Biden in November.
Here’s a reminder on polls:
Setting aside that it’s absurd to compare polls 8 months out to polls conducted right before an election, 2 of the 3 races he cites here had decently large polling error.
Trump is up ~2 pts nationally. Biden’s numbers do not need to “change significantly” to win an EC majority. https://t.co/Kgb93zjOya pic.twitter.com/SY8Nify9gX
— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) March 2, 2024
Agree. Clearly losing. https://t.co/cEDwgy2FJ9
— Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics) March 3, 2024
*NYT/Siena Swing State Polls (Oct 22 – Nov 2)*
• Trump leads among voters age 18-29 in AZ, GA, tied in MI
• Cohn does a whole write-up about it*NYT/Siena National Poll (Feb 25-28)*
• Biden leads Trump 54% to 41% among voters age 18-29
• Completely ignored in NYT’s analysis pic.twitter.com/aQBKlS9y13— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) March 3, 2024
Bob, I don't believe it either. And there was plenty more in that unusual sampling to disbelieve. https://t.co/LUY2vLN9s5
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) March 2, 2024
So many things wrong with the New York Times poll today but this is my initial response: Eight Reasons Biden Will Win Reelection in November | RealClearPolitics https://t.co/Ix7hK1Y5qb
— Maria Cardona (@MariaTCardona) March 2, 2024
Biden campaign’s Michael Tyler responds to NYT/Siena poll: “Polling continues to be at odds with how Americans vote, and consistently overestimates Donald Trump while underestimating President Biden." pic.twitter.com/CMqFeTLRrN
— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) March 2, 2024
“A poll last month was even more striking: 53% preferred Trump’s handling of immigration and border security versus only 25% for Biden. All this explains why Biden is sprinting to the center on immigration—ordinarily a sign of political weakness.” https://t.co/34kIaQP9RE
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) March 1, 2024
I'm just saying that if your poll shows Trump getting a quarter of the black vote, winning the Hispanic vote and tied with Biden among women, I'm going to look at your poll as nothing but an attempt to cause a freakout, not grounded in reality. pic.twitter.com/UQLWs8kygF
— scary lawyerguy (@scarylawyerguy) March 2, 2024
?? US Presidential Election poll
Trump: 52%
Biden: 48%(Forbes/HarrisX) pic.twitter.com/zmzLINns3G
— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) March 2, 2024
The polls were not very far off the mark about Tom Suozzi’s prospects in ‘24, Andy Beshear’s in ‘23, or even Joe Biden’s in ‘20. The polls would have to change significantly – or be quite wrong – for Biden to win in November. https://t.co/UO5vfFSBWi
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 2, 2024
NYT chases headlines while ignoring what’s happening. Trump consistently underperforms & Biden overperforms in primaries. In NH, Trump 7 pts worse poll v result. In SC -8 points & MI -10 points. Best predictor of elections = how voters vote. And they’re voting for Dems & Biden.
— Jim Messina (@Messina2012) March 2, 2024
Here is your assignment. Besides polls, point to real-world examples that indicate Democrats are in trouble. Literally, all of the commentary is based on polls that have been consistently wrong. https://t.co/AqN3n0ElGx
— Christopher Bouzy (spoutible.com/cbouzy) (@cbouzy) March 2, 2024
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Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.