Amid a consensus Republicans failed badly in their attempt to shut down the government and use a debt limit default as a threat, talk show hosts talk about not “caving” (the word partisans now on both sides use for compromise), Rush Limbaugh dreams of 45 Ted Cruzes, and a Fox News pundit suggests someone “got” to the agencies saying the shutdown had a bad effect on the economy (they must all be RINOs), , Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is making a pledge: no more government shutdowns:

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell says he will not allow another government shutdown as part of a strategy to repeal ObamaCare.

McConnell (Ky.) told The Hill in an interview Thursday afternoon that his party learned a painful political lesson over the past 16 days, as its approval rating dropped while the government was shuttered.

He said there’s no reason to go through the political wringer again in January, when the stopgap measure Congress passed late Wednesday is set to expire.

“One of my favorite old Kentucky sayings is there’s no education in the second kick of a mule. The first kick of a mule was when we shut the government down in the mid-1990s and the second kick was over the last 16 days,” he said. “There is no education in the second kick of a mule. There will not be a government shutdown.

“I think we have fully now acquainted our new members with what a losing strategy that is,” he added.

McConnell’s comments are particularly noteworthy because he is not only running for re-election, but he faces a Tea Party challenger, formal opposition from the Tea Party, and a new threat to go after him from Tea Partiers and conservatives due to his role in opening the government and making sure the United States did not default on its debt. McConnell is a skillfull political survivor who knows how to hold his finger to the political wind, so his comments speak volumes to where voters are. A poll before the shutdown showed he was trailing his Democratic challenger, largely because he had been supporting a shutdown.

It’s clear that what is now called the “moderate” wing of the GOP — basically, traditional conservative since most traditional moderates have been purged from the Republican Party or seen the writing on the right part of the wall and left voluntarily — is now making noises about resisting the Tea Partiers’ attempts to take over the Republican Party.

For instance, Arizona Senator John McCain bolsters McConnell’s stand. McCain, returning to his 2000 Maverick political persona, says he can “guarantee” there will not be another shutdown:

McCain said there’s no need to worry that another congressional impasse will lead to the same result, even though lawmakers face another set of deadlines in the coming months over the same fiscal issues.

“We’re not going to go through the shutdown again. People have been too traumatized by it. There’s too much damage,” he told CNN’s Kate Bolduan.

“We may still have some gridlock,” he later added. “Maybe we’ll have continuing resolutions that – we’re not going to shut down the government again. I guarantee it.”

McCain cited declining poll numbers for Democrats and slightly more for Republicans. “You know, I have this line that I use all the time: We’re down to blood relatives and paid staffers. Well, I got a call from my mother who’s 101,” he said, joking he’s now “even lost my mother.”

Why does he have such confidence the government won’t go dark again? The 2008 GOP presidential nominee believes President Barack Obama, who repeatedly refused to negotiate, said he’ll have to “engage” next time around.

“He has got to understand that magnanimity in victory is a very important quality to have. He won,” McCain said. “Now you sit down with your adversaries and get things worked out. If you don’t, obviously you’re not going to be a successful president.”

But will they be enough? Cruz sees this as his moment. He doesn’t intend to stop going after Republicans who didn’t go for the shutdown as he frames McConnell and Senate Republicans who voted go open the government and prevent a default as profiles in political cowardice. Who’ll have the “fire in the gut” in this fight?

It’ll be political practicality and political professionalism versus ideological desire and the viewpoint inside an ideological bubble. What’s clear is that there is already fallout for the GOP in many ways — such as in the Virginia Governor’s race:

National Republicans may be glad the midterm elections are a year away after polls have shown the party’s favorability at all-time lows because of the federal government shutdown. But one Republican – in a swing state – is caught in the buzz saw.

A new NBC4/NBC News/Marist poll finds Republican Ken Cuccinelli slipping further behind Democrat Terry McAuliffe, 46 to 38 percent in the race for Virginia governor among likely voters. That’s 3 points wider than McAuliffe’s 43 to 38 percent lead a month ago — before the shutdown. Libertarian Robert Sarvis gets 9 percent.

Virginia was one of the top states impacted by the shutdown — with hundreds of thousands of federal workers, contractors, and military service members and retirees in the state. And a majority (54 percent) in the poll blames Republicans for the shutdown. Just 31 percent of likely voters blame President Barack Obama.

Four-in-10 – 39 percent – said either they or a family member has been affected by the shutdown, whether it’s employment, services or benefits.

Many say the shutdown will have an impact on their vote — 38 percent of registered voters said it would have a major impact on it; 21 percent said it would have a minor one. Among respondents who said it has had a major impact on their vote, McAuliffe is winning them 55-27 percent. Among those who say it is a minor issue, McAuliffe also leads, 52-33 percent.

Cuccinelli only leads with those who say the government shutdown is not an issue, 49-36 percent.

McConnell seeks the risks. Cruz and the Tea Party pooh-pooh the risks and keee their eye fixed unwaveringly on the ideological prize.

UPDATE: McConnell is sparking a lot of conversation Twitter:

One common thread to McConnell interviews today, it's that he's clearly more focused on the general than the primary. http://t.co/BDBgo7a6XP

— Chuck Todd (@chucktodd) October 17, 2013

JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief

Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.

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