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The U.S. economy, especially the private sector job growth, has been steadily recovering for the past five years.
As a matter of fact, Jason Furman, chairman of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers has characterized this period as “the longest streak in U.S. history.” The Hill calls it “the longest such streak since 1995.”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that total non-farm payroll employment rose by 214,000 in October, the unemployment rate edged down to 5.8 percent and the number of unemployed persons edged down, “pushing the unemployment rate to its lowest level in six years and suggesting the labor market recovery remained intact,” according to CNBC.
Most other employment related indicators were “unchanged or changed little.”
In a related piece today, the New York Times, points to other signs of economic improvement:
“The job market is steadily picking up pace,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, reacting to a report from the payroll processor ADP this week that private sector employment increased by 230,000 jobs in October.
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“The job market will soon be tight enough to support a meaningful acceleration in wage growth,” he added.
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Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, was also predicting, “faster productivity growth would drive real wages higher next year, after a very long wait.”
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The four-week moving average for new unemployment insurance claims, considered a more reliable indicator than the week-to-week fluctuations, hit a 14-year low last week. For the federal fiscal year that ended on Sept. 30, the number of bankruptcy cases filed in federal courts dropped 13 percent to 963,739, the lowest since the 2007 fiscal year. And consumers, bolstered by falling gasoline prices, are more upbeat about job prospects than at any time in the past six years.[..]
Looking ahead, Tara M. Sinclair, an economist at Indeed.com, one of the nation’s largest sites for job postings, said: “We seem to be reaching a tipping point in terms of job market maturity. Should this positive trend continue, we should expect people to stop looking for ‘a job’ and start to look for ‘the right job.’”
However, on the day that counted, Tuesday November 4, the state of the economy and its future direction weighed heavily on the minds of voters, and they voted accordingly.
The Times: “[E]xit polls found that 78 percent of those surveyed were very or somewhat worried about the future direction of the economy, while two-thirds said they believed the economy was getting worse.”
It also points out that “…as Mr. Furman and other economic experts readily acknowledge, the experience of many Americans does not match the cautious optimism about the job market and the overall economy recently expressed by several analysts.”
Under such circumstances it is doubtful that today’s report would have had an impact, if any, on Tuesday’s voters.
It is the classical example of too little, too late.
The die had been cast by then, for better or for worse, fairly or unfairly.
The Times:
Even though the recovery from the recession is in its sixth year, stagnant wages, an economy generating jobs mostly at the bottom and the top rather than in the middle, and vast disparities between the rewards bestowed on the rich and on ordinary workers have left many people disenchanted with their economic prospects.
Never mind which Party is responsible for such disparities, for poisoning the economic well and so many other wellsprings, fountains of truth and reservoirs of goodwill.
Sour grapes? Nah!
Lead image: www.shutterstock.com
