A new Gallup Poll finds that Donald Trump has a -51 (that isn’t a typo, yes MINUS 51) favorability rating with Hispanic voters and that other contenders for the 2016 Republican Presidential nomination do not fare that badly. The meaning? If experts are correct, a new “Mission Impossible” movie could be made — this time, a political one about Trump’s ability to capture the White House next year if he’s nominated, unless voter ID and other Republican efforts to control who votes on election day manage to filter out the vast majority of Hispanic voters. The poll indicates the party in general is not being totally written off by Hispanic voters:
PRINCETON, N.J. — U.S. Hispanics are still getting to know most of the Republican contenders for president. At this point in the campaign, less than half have formed an opinion of any Republican candidate except Donald Trump and Jeb Bush. Partly because of this, Hispanics’ views of most GOP candidates range from mildly positive to mildly negative. The sole exception is Trump, whose favorable rating with Hispanics is deeply negative.
The graphic is truly stunning with you look at Trump’s name:
Some of those poll numbers are workable, even if they don’t soar. Trump’s could inspired another movie: “Journey to the Center of the Earth.” More:
Gallup began tracking the images of all the major announced candidates for president nightly in early July. Since then, 14% of the roughly 650 Hispanics interviewed have said they view Trump favorably, while 65% have viewed him unfavorably, yielding a net favorable score of -51. This separates Trump from the next-most-unpopular Republicans among Hispanics — Rick Perry (-7), Ted Cruz (-7) and Jim Gilmore (-6), who are viewed far less negatively.
Bush presents the greatest contrast to Trump. Bush’s average 34% favorable and 23% unfavorable ratings among Hispanics since July give him a +11 net favorable score — the highest of any GOP candidate. The net favorable scores of Marco Rubio (+5), Carly Fiorina (+3), George Pataki (+3), Scott Walker (+2) and Ben Carson (+2) all tilt slightly positive, although none of these candidates is nearly as well-known among Hispanics as Trump and Bush.
In terms of familiarity, only Trump and Bush are recognized by a majority of Hispanics. Eight in 10 have formed an opinion of Trump and about six in 10 of Bush. Familiarity dwindles to roughly 40% for Rubio and Cruz, both Cuban-Americans, as well as for Perry and Chris Christie, but drops well below that for all the others. (See the full ratings in the tables at the end.)
According to Gallup, Trump’s ratings have stayed bad throughout July and August. But there has been a shift in how Hispanics perceive Jeb Bush:
Meanwhile, an interesting shift in Hispanics’ ratings of Bush has occurred. His net favorable rating among Hispanics jumped from +1 in July (based on 28% viewing him favorably and 27% unfavorably) to +22 in August (41% favorable, 19% unfavorable), a significant change at a time when no other candidate’s image has shown much movement. This could reflect Hispanics’ support for Bush’s more moderate tone on immigration — at least before he referred to the children of illegal immigrants as “anchor babies.” These figures will serve as a valuable baseline to see whether the ongoing criticism of Bush for using the term “anchor babies” hurts him in the Hispanic community.
On the Democratic side, the poll found Hillary Clinton is the only Democrat who Hispanic voters widely know.
Gallup’s conclusion?
Trump has a highly unfavorable image among U.S. Hispanics, but at least for now, this doesn’t seem to be tarnishing the rest of the Republican field. As of mid-August, Bush’s image among Hispanics had improved as Trump’s immigration positions dominated the news. With Hispanics constituting only a small fraction of the Republican Party, this has not boosted Bush’s favorable rating — which has been fairly flat all summer among the Republican base. But, unless his “anchor babies” comment derails him, Bush’s recent jockeying with Trump could help warm Hispanic voters to him in the general election should he capture the nomination. For now, Clinton has a modest advantage over Bush in favorability among Hispanics, but she is also much better known than her Democratic competitors.
But nervousness over Trumps impact on the party brand among GOPers is increasing — as are fears that he could hurt the party’s effort to hold onto the senate, The Hill reports:
Republicans are increasingly worried that Donald Trump’s candidacy will hurt the party’s quest to maintain the Senate majority in 2016.
The real estate mogul’s controversial comments on immigration could cause a trickle-down effect and haunt Republican Senate candidates, party strategists say.
“I think it’s pretty clear that some of [Trump’s] more dramatic proposals on immigration will certainly affect races like the Nevada senate race in particular,”said one Nevada GOP strategist.
The debate over Trump’s immigration stance “will, by its very nature spill down to races,” the strategist said.“In a state like Nevada, the Hispanic element is absolutely essential.”
Florida GOP strategist Rick Wilson, who is advising Florida Senatorial candidate and Florida Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, thinks that“in the big picture, all of these candidates will stand or fall on their own strengths.”
But, he added,“the worst case scenario is that Trump is running a campaign that is only about Trump, and [GOP Senate candidates] are constantly under the gun and trying to answer the latest policy announcement he makes.”
Wilson said the landscape has the potential to resemble 2006, where Republican candidates were dogged by President George W. Bush’s sinking popularity in the midterm elections. Democrats took back control of both the House and the Senate that year.
Indeed,GOP Senate candidates—including Sens. Kelly Ayotte (N.H.), Mark Kirk (Ill.), John McCain (Ariz.) and Sen. Richard Burr (N.C.), as well as Rep. Joe Heck (Nev.) —have all been asked about Trump’s stances on the trail.
Ayotte, Kirk and Heckhave criticized Trump’s controversial comments on immigration, while Burr said Thursday that he is “delighted” by Trump’s passion.
Democrats have already capitalized on Trump’s presence in the race.
As they will continue to do in appealing to that portion of the electorate who find Mr. Trump unfunny and alarming. Even some people close to Ronald Reagan have stepped forward (in one instance at the request of Nancy Reagan) to make it clear that despite Trump’s comments he is in no, way, shape or form another Ronald Reagan. But some including conservative commentator Ben Stein have compared him to the late Alabama Governor George Wallace.
Investor’s Business Daily’s Andrew Malcom:
Of course, it’s perfectly ridiculous to even contemplate Donald Trump as the eventual presidential nominee of the party of Abraham Lincoln.
But let’s just say that Trump’s reality TV insanity infected enough delegates in Cleveland next July. And he became the 2016 GOP nominee. How would Trump do with Hispanics, the nation’s fastest-growing group of voters?
True, less than half of Hispanics vote vs about two-thirds of non-Hispanic whites and blacks.
And at 53 million, the U.S. Hispanic population remains a minority compared to the 260 million non-Hispanics. Pero between 2000 and 2012, the Hispanic population grew 49%. Los otros 5.8%. Do the math, amigo, and those predominantly young voters present a golden opportunity for any political party. Much as Republicans enjoyed black support for generations post-Civil War.
Republicans have not fared as poorly with Hispanics as generally believed. George W. Bush captured 40% of Latinos in his 2004 win, almost as much as he did as Texas governor. Mitt Romney’s Hispanic votes slipped to 27% in 2012.
Now, what about El Trumpo? Well, not so well.
He looks at the Gallup data and then writes this:
It’s a complete mystery why Trump would be seen so negatively. Unless it’s somehow related to his blanket charges that a border wall is necessary to stop Mexico from exporting criminals, that all undocumented immigrants should be deported and their children born in the United States should not be American citizens.
If estimates of 11 million illegal immigrants are correct, that means Trump is painting more than 40 million legal Hispanic residents with his broad stereotyping brush. That might work with some of the angry GOP base in primary season, but it’s not exactly a formula for political success later.
Trump’s support among Republicans so far remains the largest of the field, but is stuck around 25-26%. Even Mike Huckabee did better than that when he won the 2008 Iowa caucus with 34%.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.