Campaign 2024 series: the stakes, not the odds
In 2021, the Boston Globe editorial board asked: “Who owns the president?”
It’s a reasonable question of former President Donald J. Trump. We didn’t know the answer then. We still don’t.
Three years later, we have more than a half-billion reasons to revisit that question. Were Trump to be re-elected, his legal debts would be a national security issue as well as a domestic one, even if he were to succeed in every appeal.
On Friday, Trump posted an $92,000,000 bond, a promise to pay (with interest) writer E. Jean Carroll, who won her second defamation case against Trump this year. Trump also still owes Carroll $5 million award for her original defamation lawsuit which he lost last year.
Federal Insurance Company, a division of the insurance conglomerate Chubb Ltd., is managing Friday’s bond. That’s all we know.
Trump’s court filing didn’t provide details on how he financed the $91.6 million bond. Nor did Chubb, which said, “as a matter of policy, we do not comment on client-specific information.” The standard premium for appeal bonds is 2%, according to people familiar with the business. At that rate, Trump’s bond would have cost him $1.8 million, unless he negotiated a better rate.
Absent a fire sale of his trophy properties, or a sudden infusion of funds from an angel investor, Trump would most likely have to pledge some of his real estate assets as collateral for his next appeal bond. And if those properties are encumbered in any way with mortgages or loans, the surety underwriter would have to devise a way to put the bond in a priority position.
Then there’s the issue of Trump himself, who has a checkered past when it comes to paying off debts (emphasis added)…
Does Trump have a relationship with the Chubb CEO? Is this bond a quid-pro-quo?
In 2018, Trump appointed Chubb’s CEO Evan Greenberg to a White House advisory committee for trade policy and negotiations.
According to Andrew Weissmann, former general counsel for the FBI:
[The] issue of who is actually behind [Trump’s bond] is something that people who are voting should know… who is the candidate beholden to? Is [Trump] going to be making policy and being differential to people who have put up money (emphasis added)?
That’s not the only New York judgment
Trump is also on the hook for the $454 million verdict (plus ongoing internet) in the more recent New York state civil fraud trial. (Interest is reported at $112,000 per day.)
On Friday, Greg Farrell wrote this for Bloomberg:
It won’t be easy for Trump to post an appeal bond in the neighborhood of $500 million ($450 million plus 10 percent interest) on his own. He has about $400 million in cash on hand, according to testimony in the New York Attorney General’s case, but he would need those funds to keep running his business — which means he is likely already working with Federal Insurance or a competing surety company to arrange the bigger bond.
In this case Trump (and his sons) were found guilty of defrauding financial institutions. “It’s very difficult to see a financial institution agreeing to post a bond in the amount necessary here,” Scott Horton, “a lawyer who specializes in human rights and international law, but started off in judgment enforcement,” told Bloomberg.
Then there’s the New York Times. The NYT has secured a $400,000 judgment “connected to a frivolous lawsuit [Trump] brought against the paper” and three reporters.
What about Florida?
More than a year ago, U.S. District Judge Donald M. Middlebrooks (Florida) “accused Trump of a ‘pattern of abuse of the courts’ for filing frivolous lawsuits for political purposes, which he said ‘undermines the rule of law’ and ‘amounts to obstruction of justice.'” Judge Middlebrooks “described Trump as ‘a prolific and sophisticated litigant’ who uses the courts ‘to seek revenge on political adversaries’.”
Trump met with Elon Musk at his Florida estate last weekend. Were they discussing the financial condition of his presidential campaign? His mounting legal bills? (The rulings against him do not include his attorney feeds.)
Only they know. But the public should, too. Because legal obligations can be a form of kompromat, making them a national security issue.
Who owns the president?
In 2021, The Guardian reported:
[F]ormer CIA director Michael Morell has called Trump an “unwitting agent” of the Russians; former national security director James Clapper has described him “in effect … an intelligence asset”; and former CIA director John Brennan has said Trump is “wholly in the pocket of Putin”.
Almost $600,000,000 in judgments. And counting.
- Attorney General Letitia James civil fraud ruling on February 16, 2024: $454,000,000 plus $111,984 in interest, daily. Monday is his deadline for filing a response.
- E. Jean Carroll defamation: $5,500,000 (includes interest and fees; on appeal) + $92,000,000 (includes interest and fees; on appeal)
- Hillary Clinton, compensation for “frivolous” lawsuit: $938,000 (on appeal)
- London (UK) Judge Karen Steyn dismissed a Trump defamation lawsuit against former British spy Christopher Steele. Judge Steyn ordered the former president to pay $382,000 (300,000 pounds) in legal fees. That was March 7, 2024. Trump lost a U.S. case against Steele and Clinton in 2022.
- New York Times legal fees: $400,000
There’s more
That’s only the cases which have been decided, at least initially. (Trump appeals everything.)
1. Trial begins in Manhatten District Attorney Alvin L. Bragg’s hush money cases (31 felony charges) on March 25, 2024, with Judge Juan Merchan.
During the election, TRUMP and others employed a “catch and kill” scheme to identify, purchase, and bury negative information about him and boost his electoral prospects. TRUMP then went to great lengths to hide this conduct, causing dozens of false entries in business records to conceal criminal activity, including attempts to violate state and federal election laws.
2. In Georgia, Fulton County district attorney Fani Willis has charged Trump and cronies with racketeering, a conspiracy to steal the 2020 presidential election. Jenna Ellis, Kenneth Chesebro and Sidney Powell have all negotiated a plea deal.
3. Special Counsel Jack Smith charged Trump with four felonies relating to his attempts to subvert the peaceful transition of power. The Supreme Court of the U.S. has inserted itself into this mess based on Trump’s claim of absolute presidential immunity.
4. Finally, Special Counsel Smith has charged Trump with “37 felonies in connection with his removal of documents from the White House when he left office.” Criminal trial, not civil.
All leading to mounting and ongoing legal fees.
Federal election law clearly prohibits Trump from using campaign funds for personal expenses. But political action committees (PAC)? In 2023, Trump used $52,000,000 in PAC donations for legal fees.
The RNC? Not very clear.
Note to voters: we need a Democratic Congress to tighten these laws.
This is not a definitive list of Trump’s legal troubles. For example, in October 2023, his 2016 campaign staff won a class action suit from an illegal non-disclosure agreement (NDA). According to MSN, the court-ordered settlement was $4,000,000. The principle litigant, Jessica Denson, was awarded $25,000.
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“Not the odds, but the stakes.” That’s how Jay Rosen, NYU journalism professor and media critic, thinks news organizations should be covering the 2024 presidential election.
“The stakes, of course, mean the stakes for American democracy,” Rosen told Oliver Darcy, CNN, last year. “The stakes are what might happen as a result of the election.” Rosen continued: “The horse race [odds] should not be the model… It should not be the organizing principle of your campaign coverage.”
This is my second report focused on the stakes facing voters in this presidential election.
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Known for gnawing at complex questions like a terrier with a bone. Digital evangelist, writer, teacher. Transplanted Southerner; teach newbies to ride motorcycles. @kegill (Twitter and Mastodon.social); wiredpen.com