Yesterday I posted my prediction that the Republicans were 99% sure to keep control of the House, today I am going to offer some opinions out the outcome in the Senate.
As I said with the House, I never want to say something is 100% certain because you never know what could happen in politics, but the Democrats have a strong edge in this contest. Since the membership of the Senate is much smaller however the chance that a couple unexpected outcomes would have a much bigger impact. With that in mind I am putting the odds of Democrats retaining the Senate at 75% with a 50/50 chance for them to gain a seat or two.
Since the Senate races in play are small enough to review I will offer my guesstimates on how they will come out. If I do not list a race then I am assuming the party in control will keep it.
In New England we have two races where control could change, Maine and Massachusetts. Both are currently held by Republicans but my guess is both will switch. In Maine Independent Angus King seems likely to win the seat held by retiring Senator Collins and he is expected to caucus with the Democrats. In Massachusetts, incumbent Scott Brown is running as well as any Republican can in such a blue state but I think the Obama tide will pull in Elizabeth Warren.
This gives the Dems a two seat gain so far.
In the South we have two seats, Virginia and Florida that are currently held by Democrats and my guess is that is not going to change. In Virginia former Governor Kaine has held a consistent edge over former Senator Allen and there does not seem to be a Romney tide to pull him in. In Florida, incumbent Bill Nelson seems to have the edge over Congressman Mack.
Of course it is possible a stronger than expected Romney showing in these two states could pull either Republican in but I am guessing now that this won’t happen.
So we are still at +2D
In the Midwest we have three races to examine in Indiana, Wisconsin and Missouri. Right now Indiana is held by the GOP and the other two are held by Democrats. We’ve all seen the stupid comments by GOP candidates in both Indiana and Missouri that have hurt what should have been solid GOP chances and this is one of the reasons that the Democrats have an edge to hold the Senate.
Looking at Indiana and Wisconsin, both races are close but my guess is that the Democratic flavor of Wisconsin will pull in Tammy Baldwin while the Republican edge in Indiana will bring in Mourdock. In Missouri things are harder to call since the state is very evenly divided and is very hard to predict but my guess is that McCaskill holds this one for the Democrats.
So again we remain at +2D
Moving into the farm belt/rocky mountain region we have 3 races to look at in Nebraska, North Dakota and Montana. All three are currently held by Democrats and this is where the GOP has the edge. All 3 states are leaning to strong GOP and all are likely to have a solid Romney tide u the ticket. Just as the New England races are likely to go to the Democrats for local ideology reasons I think that the same will happen here for the Republicans as they pick up all 3 seats.
So we now shift to +1R
Finally in the West we have races in Arizona and Nevada, both currently held by the GOP. Arizona is particularly interesting as the Democratic nominee is doing much better than expected. Still the trend for most of the year has been to the GOP in both seats, in Nevada the Republican has remained ahead even as President Obama has led in the Presidential race. For this reason I call both seats for the GOP.
So assuming I am right we have a 1 seat GOP gain.
Currently the Senate is 51D, 47 R and 2 I (both of whom caucus with Dems) for a net 53-47 Democratic edge.
The change would result in a 50-48-2 Senate or 52D-48R
Of course the fact that each of these races is in play means that the numbers could easily differ. If the Democrats pick up Indiana, Nevada or Arizona (or hold Montana) then they could go as high as 55-45 control.
On the other hand if the GOP picks off Virginia, Missouri and Florida (or holds Massachusetts) then they could take a narrow 51-49 edge.
But my bet is that we will see just what we have now, a GOP House and a Democratic Senate.