Are storm clouds hovering over President Joe Biden’s 2024 Presidential campaign? Despite assurances from the Biden camp and some political analysts, it certainly seems so.
Although predictions about presidents’ election chances a year before a presidential election are often wrong or hyped up, the Biden campaign clearly has lots of work to do. Economic numbers look good, but there are increasing tensions within the Democratic Party over Israel, Ukraine and the border–and Joe Biden’s poll numbers aren’t good.
President Biden is facing a fight with his base over an emergency foreign aid spending package that may reach the Senate floor this week.
The package, which would provide aid to Israel and Ukraine but include tough border security measures in order to win over Republicans, could add to his problems generating enthusiasm among Democratic voters.
Young Democrats in particular are increasingly disaffected with Biden’s handling of Israel’s war in Gaza, complicating his ability to connect with a key demographic that views the president’s age as a red flag.
Now Biden also faces blowback from Latino and progressive voters about the border security deal. It reportedly would give the president broader authority to expel migrants without asylum screenings or detain them at the border.
Biden’s readiness to embrace a deal appears to be part of a calculation that he needs to appeal more to moderate and independent voters to win reelection, given the persistent skepticism among many younger progressives about a second Biden term.
It could also simply be the price for winning support for Ukraine, now that border measures have been tied to funding for Kiev.
Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who has worked on several presidential and vice-presidential campaigns, warned that Biden can expect blowback from his base.
“It will, in the short term, undoubtedly result in some people being very upset. That’s part of what these compromises are about,” he said.
But, The Hill reports, Devine also feels this could help Biden in the long-term.
“I do think that if somehow he and his team can pull off some kind of comprehensive deal which would provide funding for Ukraine and to an extent for Israel, as well as deal with what is perceived to be a very difficult situation at the border, I think it will be a big win for the president,” Devine said.
He also said the reality is that Biden has to deal with “a radicalized Republican Party” given the GOP’s control of the House.
“Yes, I think there will be blowback, but will that extend all the way until next November? I don’t think it will,” Devine said.
…Ross K. Baker, a professor of political science at Rutgers University, said Biden appears to be making more of a play for centrist and swing voters to make up for his weak numbers with Democratic voters.
“He feels that there aren’t enough voters among Latinos for an open border policy,” he said of the president.
Biden may calculate that the prospect of Trump returning to the White House will establish a floor for his support among Democratic voters, Baker added.
“One of the basic assumptions is he can never alienate the left enough to cause them to desert him in the face of a challenge from Trump,” Baker said.
CNN points to polling showing a Democratic Party split over Israel:
President Joe Biden has a problem with the Democratic base when it comes to the Israel-Hamas War. It’s not just that his approval rating on the conflict is lower among Democrats than his overall approval rating. It’s that his base is divided – by age.
Younger Democrats are far more likely than older Democrats to view Israel skeptically when it comes to this war as well as the larger geopolitical context. The intra-party age gaps on this question are amongst the largest I’ve ever seen on any important issue.
Take a look at a recent Quinnipiac University poll on the topic. Biden’s approval rating for his handling of the Israel-Hamas War among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters is just 56%. Compare that to his 76% approval rating among Democratic voters for his overall job performance.
A significant minority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters (36%) disapprove of his handling of the war. Those voters tend to be young.
The lion’s share (69%) of Democrats and Democratic-leaning younger than 35 disapprove of how Biden is responding to the war. Just 24% approve. It’s the inverse among older Democrats. Most Democrats 65 and older (77%) approve of Biden on this issue. Few (16%) disapprove.
The cause of the split is pretty clear when you dig deeper into the data. Biden has been, by most neutral accounts, more sympathetic to Israel than Palestinians during the war. That doesn’t sit well with younger Democrats.
When asked which side they sympathize with, Israelis or Palestinians, more, Democrats younger than 35 are far more likely to sympathize with Palestinians (74%) than Israelis (16%). Democrats 65 and older are somewhat more likely to side with Israelis (45%) than Palestinians (25%).
The large divide by age causes Democrats and Democratic leaning voters overall to split basically evenly, with 39% sympathizing with Palestinians and 35% with Israelis.
This is a massive shift from the beginning of the Israel-Hamas War, when Democrats were more likely to sympathize with Israel by a 48% to 22% margin. That poll was taken in the immediate aftermath of a surprise terrorist attack by Hamas on October 7 that killed about 1,200 people. Since that time, Israel has mounted an offensive in Gaza, and the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health says more than 10,000 Palestinians have died.
The age breakdown that we’re seeing now, though, goes deeper than just this war or the relationship between Israelis and Palestinians. It comes down to whether Democrats see Israel as a partner.
Most Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters (70%) believe that supporting Israel is in the national interest. This includes 87% of those 65 and older.
Democrats younger than 35 see things entirely differently. Just 40% think backing Israel is in the national interest of this country. The majority (52%) disagree.
Meanwhile, the Washington Post’s Tyler Pager reports that Biden is “frustrated” over his low poll ratings.
The night before President Biden departed Washington to celebrate Thanksgiving on Nantucket, Mass., he gathered his closest aides for a meeting in the White House residence.
After pardoning a pair of turkeys, an annual White House tradition, Biden delivered some stern words for the small group assembled: His poll numbers were unacceptably low and he wanted to know what his team and his campaign were doing about it. He complained that his economic message had done little to move the ball, even as the economy was growing and unemployment was falling, according to people familiar with his comments, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a private conversation.
…Since that November meeting, which has not been previously reported, most polls continue to show Biden trailing Trump nationally and, more importantly, in key battleground states. The accumulation of troubling polls for Biden has made it harder for Democrats to dismiss them, leading to a fresh set of conversations among Biden officials and allies about whether the president and his team need a shift in strategy. And now Democrats in competitive races are growing increasingly worried about Biden damaging their own electoral prospects.
…Biden officials have grown accustomed to Democratic anxiety about their every move and the state of their campaign. They routinely point to comments made by lawmakers, donors and pundits who declared Biden’s 2020 primary campaign over when he was routed in Iowa and New Hampshire before he went on to win the nomination and the presidency.
…But now Biden’s approval rating has tied his record low, standing at 38 percent with 58 percent disapproving, according to a Washington Post average of 17 polls in November and December. Voters, including a majority of Democrats, are particularly concerned about Biden’s age and consistently rank it as a bigger problem for the president, 81, than Trump, 77.
In the states, recent polls from CNN found Biden trailed Trump in Michigan by 10 points and in Georgia by 5 points. In early November, New York Times-Siena College polls found Biden trailing Trump in five of the six most competitive battleground states: Trump led Biden by 10 percentage points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona and Michigan and four in Pennsylvania. Biden led Trump by two in Wisconsin, albeit well within the 4.8-point margin of error. In 2020, Biden defeated Trump in all six of those states, though by very narrow margins.
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Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.