All eyes on the Florida 6th Congressional District

When Republican Michael Waltz became President Donald Trump’s national security advisor, he vacated his Florida congressional district seat, which set in motion a special election to fill it. That election takes place Tuesday, April 1st.

It is probably true that few people believed the Republicans would have a difficult time holding the seat given the fact that in November Walz won by an impressive 33 points and Trump beat Vice President Harris in the district by 30 points. But all of that was before Trump decided to take a torch to American Democracy as we know it. Now voters in this very red district will have a chance to weigh in on how they feel about what the president has done so far on important issues like Elon Musk’s DOGE efforts, tariffs on imports, and immigration policy, to name a few of the hot-button items defining his presidency to date.

The race is between Republican state Senator Randy Fine and Democrat Josh Weil. There have been a few polls and amazingly this one appears to be competitive, with one survey showing the Trump-endorsed Fine with a 4-point lead and another actually putting Weil ahead by a few points. Both of these polls are within the margin of error, but given the political leanings of the district, this is quite something. Add to this that the Democrat Weil has significantly out-raised his Republican opponent by more than 10 times.

Another indicator of how much trouble the Republicans may be in is that some members of the Florida GOP establishment are already calling this race “candidate-specific” meaning that if Fine underperforms, it’s on him and not President Trump or the party. Throwing shade on your own candidate in the days leading up to the election is definitely not a good look.

The Republicans may well hold this seat given the history, but even if they do, the margin will matter. Similarly, Matt Gaetz’s seat in the Florida 1st Congressional District is up for grabs and while no one is suggesting the Democrats have a real shot there, the margin of victory will matter there too.

When the dust settles, spinners will spin, but if the Democrat’s significantly over-perform, you have got to believe that vulnerable Republican members of the House and the Senate will notice and will perhaps be a little less likely to rubber stamp Trump’s agenda. We all know how well the threat of a primary challenge has been used to keep congressional Republicans in line but if they start to feel like winning their party’s nomination is a short-term victory on the way to ultimate defeat, some things could start to change.