The volcanic ash cloud spewing forth from Iceland continues to cause havok in Europe: grounding airlines, shutting down airspace — and potentially delivering a body blow to European countries’ already reeling economies.
How bad has it been? Bad enough that a high profile news story was the fact that the ash cloud caused some world leaders who planned to fly to Poland’s President’s state funeral — including President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper — to cancel (other leaders who could drive did so). Now Air France says it has carried on a test flight and plans more — and airlines are clamoring to reopen air space ASAP. But even if the flights go without a hitch that doesn’t ensure air space will be opened soon enough for the airlines — and stranded travelers…or European countries’ economies.
Right now roughly 77 percent of Europe’s flights are grounded: the biggest disruption in European airline travel since the 911 attacks.
The Los Angeles Times reports:
With their losses mounting, European airlines began experimenting Sunday with test flights to see if air travel could somehow resume despite the cloud of volcanic ash in the atmosphere that shows little sign of budging.
The Dutch airline KLM said it had received permission from aviation authorities to fly seven of its planes stuck in Duesseldorf, Germany, back to Amsterdam one by one with only a crew on board. The first one departed early Sunday morning.
“These are test flights,” KLM President and CEO Peter Hartman said in a statement. “This does not mean that normal air traffic has been resumed.”
The return of the stranded aircraft follows a flight conducted by KLM on Saturday evening in Dutch airspace to see whether conditions were safe for flying despite the ash blown up by the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland.
KLM said that the Boeing 737-800 airliner reached an altitude of 41,000 feet, the maximum allowed for that type of jet, and that an inspection afterward “revealed that no problems had been encountered and that the quality of the atmosphere is in order.”
In addition to KLM, airlines in Germany and France are also expected to run test flights Sunday.
Aviation experts cautioned that even successful tests did not mean an immediate restoration of normal service. But airlines facing losses of millions of dollars a day were clearly hoping to find a way to resume operation.
Forecasters have warned that the cloud of ash from the the Eyjafjallajökull volcano, in southern Iceland, could remain over Britain until at least the end of next week.
BA, Thomson, bmi and Flybe said that their flights in the affected area would not resume until Tuesday at the earliest.
Lord Adonis, the Transport Secretary, said this morning that Nats and the Met Office were working with airlines to “ensure they are ready to fully exploit any respite in conditions which could allow some flights to operate”.
He said: “I wish to establish, as a matter of urgency, whether some safe flight paths can be identified and opened up to flights within the area affected by ash.
“I am in contact with other European transport ministers on this issue and urgent discussions are taking place with European and international regulatory agencies. We want to be able to resume flights as soon as possible, but safety remains my paramount concern.”
There was growing pressure on air traffic controllers to restore services after KLM and Lufthansa’s test flights yesterday.
KLM said that a Boeing 737 reached up to 41,000ft (12,500m), the maximum altitude at which the aircraft is certified to fly, in Dutch airspace without suffering any damage.
The Dutch airline, a subsidiary of Air France, said that it wanted to resume passenger flights in Europe as soon as possible, adding that it planned to return seven jets without passengers to Amsterdam from Düsseldorf.
But Britain’s National Air Traffic Services has announced that all flights will stay down until at least 1 a.m. Monday — so British Airway has cancelled all flights slated for tomorrow. The impact of all of this is what worries airlines — and governments. The New York Times notes that the ash cloud has cut a big destructive path:
The cloud had extended as far south as Spain overnight, prompting the closure of airspace in the northern part of that country, according to Eurocontrol. Airports across most of the continent were expected to remain shuttered at least into Sunday afternoon, though a few countries, including France and Switzerland, had opened at least parts of their airspace to allow overflights above 35,000 feet.
While the closing of the airways has already laid waste to the immediate plans and business of industry, the arts and world leaders, the possibility that it could drag on for days, if not weeks, is raising concerns about the longer term consequences for public health, military operations and the world economy.
The disaster is estimated to be costing airlines $200 million a day, but the economic damage will roll through to farms, retail establishments and nearly any other business that depends on air cargo shipments. Fresh produce will spoil, and supermarkets in Europe, used to year-round supplies, will begin to run out.
But unless flights are disrupted for weeks, threatening factories’ supply chains, economists do not think the crisis will significantly affect gross domestic product.
“If it really drags on another week that could be really serious,” said Peter Westaway, chief economist for Europe at the Nomura investment bank. The air travel shutdown could affect productivity, he said, if hundreds of thousands of people miss work or are not able to do business because they are stuck in limbo somewhere.
So far Europe has cut some 77 percent of its flights, but there are hopes they can resume by mid-week.
German carrier Lufthansa — which had to ground its entire global fleet — flew 10 empty planes at low altitude from Munich to Frankfurt to have them in place when the restrictions are finally lifted.
“There has never been anything like this,” an airline spokesman said.
The airline industry faces up to $200 million in losses a day, according to the International Air Transport Association.
Other businesses reliant on air travel — including international package-delivery companies and producers of perishable goods — were also considering transportation alternatives.Economic experts said the disruption was unlikely to have any real deep affect on the European economy in the immediate future.
“The overall impact should be very limited even if the problem persists for a day or more,” said Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight.
The ashy disaster was costing the already struggling aviation industry an estimated $200 million a day, according to the International Air Transport Association.
At JFK, dispirited travelers slept on cots, the floor, or seats in a Starbucks as scientists warned the volcanic eruptions behind the massive cloud were getting worse.
Meanwhile, the EU is setting up a group to take a hard look at the ash cloud’s impact on Europe, Moneycontrol.com reports:
The EU executive said on Sunday it was setting up a group to assess the economic impact of the volcanic ash cloud from Iceland and said any steps taken across the European Union needed to be properly coordinated.
“The volcanic ash cloud has created an unprecedented situation,” European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said in a statement.
“I have asked (EU Transport Commissioner Siim) Kallas to coordinate the Commission’s response and fully assess the impact of the situation created by the volcanic ash cloud on the economy, and the air travel industry in particular.
“It is important that all measures to be considered are coordinated at the European level.”
Barroso said Kallas would be helped by Competition and State Aid Commissioner Joaquin Almunia and Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn.
The Atlantic’s James Fallows provides this LIVE LINK to the European Air Traffic monitor.
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