You read this and have to wonder: do they know something we don’t know?
Amid widespread panic in the Republican establishment about the coming midterm elections, there are two people whose confidence about GOP prospects strikes even their closest allies as almost inexplicably upbeat: President Bush and his top political adviser, Karl Rove.
Some Republicans on Capitol Hill are bracing for losses of 25 House seats or more. But party operatives say Rove is predicting that, at worst, Republicans will lose only 8 to 10 seats — shy of the 15-seat threshold that would cede control to Democrats for the first time since the 1994 elections and probably hobble the balance of Bush’s second term.
And, indeed, this would not be the first election where the news media, pollsters and bloggers worked themselves into a state of conventional wisdom that wasn’t so conventional after Election Day (for varying and often controversial reasons). MORE:
In the Senate, Rove and associates believe, a Democratic victory would require the opposition to “run the table,” as one official put it, to pick up the necessary six seats — a prospect the White House seems to regard as nearly inconceivable.
The Mark Foley page scandal and its fallout have many Republicans panicked, but Rove professes to be taking it in stride. “The data we are seeing from individual races and the national polls would tend to indicate that people can divorce Foley’s personal action from the party,” he said in a brief interview Thursday.
The official White House line of supreme self-assurance comes from the top down. Bush has publicly and privately banished any talk of losing the GOP majorities, in part to squelch any loss of nerve among his legions. Come January, he said last week, “We’ll have a Republican speaker and a Republican leader of the Senate.”
The question is whether this is a case of justified confidence — based on Bush’s and Rove’s electoral record and knowledge of the money, technology and other assets at their command — or of self-delusion. Even many Republicans suspect the latter. Three GOP strategists with close ties to the White House flatly predicted the loss of the House, though they would not do so on the record for fear of offending senior Bush aides.
What could the reasons for this optimism be? These are the possibilities (and we are LISTING THEM, not necessarily saying we believe them):
- The GOP has a firmly-cemented structural advantage now due to changes in recent years. In today’s LA Times, Tony Quinn, a former consultant to legislative Republicans on redistricting, writes that gerrymandered districts now virtually means that no Republicans will lose their seats in California…no matter what.
- The GOP’s highly-touted and supremely effective get-out-the-vote demographics software machine is revved up and that it will triumph in the end. Do the Democrats have something that matches it? By all accounts no.
- An October surprise. This phrase is getting a bit old now. And it is so highly publicized that if there is some sudden event that even remotely looks staged or smells bad it will boomerang on the GOP.
- A big voter suppression effort on Election Day, to keep Democratic votes in certain swing districts down. Again, this would be done at the GOP’s peril due to past controversies.
- Post-election controversies involving electronic voting. There are some on the left who suggest that this is where American democracy is going. Bluntly put, that U.S. elections may soon not matter. Yet this argument is undermined by the fact that there is dissatisfaction over the Bush administration and the GOP elite in Congress now coming from segments of the military, the Republican coalition, traditional conservatives, former members of the first Bush administration and intelligence services. Right now there are a lot of people besides registered Democrats rooting for a GOP defeat in Congress that will return the United States to an era of divided government. The days of gridlock now seem like the good old days.
The bottom line is that if there is a GOP victory that is way out of whack with all of the advance polls (which now seem largely in agreement in terms of voters being irate) and one that contradicts advance polling from various sources in many districts there will be a new controversy that will rival 2000. If it’s easily documented, that’s another matter. Paranoia and hanky-panky have long existed in politics so the election results — no matter what they are — will be closely scrutinized.
And if the GOP goes down to the kind of defeat that some Democrats are hoping for and some GOPers dread?
There will likely be a strong desire on the part of Congressional and other Republicans to clip the power wings of Rove and Bush so that their party can reorganize and present a new face in 2008.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.