Could it be that Arizona voters read The Moderate Voice? It sure seems that way, because the last poll reflects what I’ve said in various posts here and on my Twitter account: John McCain in his present incarnation is not the same John McCain as in 2000 because he has now morphed into an all-out partisan who can be expected to echo whatever the Republican party’s conservative talk radio political culture is saying at the moment. Look at these results from Public Polling Policy:
John McCain has had a Charlie Crist like drop in his approval numbers over the last six months, seeing double digit declines in his popularity with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. As a result a majority of Arizona voters now disapprove of his job performance.
55% of voters disapprove of McCain to just 34% who give him good marks. When PPP polled Arizona in September he was at a positive 48/42 approval spread, so he’s dropped 27 points on the margin since that time. McCain’s biggest fall in popularity has come with Republicans as he’s been more aggressively challenged from the right by J.D. Hayworth. Where 65% gave him good marks last fall now just 48% do, a 17 point decline. He’s also gone down 13 points with independents (from 41% to 28%) and 11 points with Democrats (from 32% to 21%.)
McCain has tried to shed his ‘maverick’ image in order to survive the Republican primary and the numbers indicate that’s working, but at the cost of diminished support from Democrats and independents. Just 28% of voters feel that McCain is an ‘independent voice for Arizona’ while 55% are more inclined to describe him as a ‘partisan voice for national Republicans.’
This doesn’t mean he is danger of losing his re-election bid. Quite the contrary:
Despite all that McCain still looks like a solid favorite against likely Democratic opponent Rodney Glassman, leading him 49-33. That does represent a significant tightening since September when McCain led 55-25, but doesn’t put him in a particularly dire situation. The reason for the disconnect between McCain’s approval rating and his support for reelection is that while only 48% of Republicans express approval of his job performance, 78% will still vote for him in a general election.
But the bottom line now is that if someone uses the word “independent” in the same sentence with “John Mccain” they must be talking about a British newspaper. If they use the word “maverick,” they must be talking about a 1960s Ford.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.