With all of the very effective pre-speech leaks there wasn’t a whole lot of surprise in the speech tonight but as I listened to it I did have a few thoughts. Overall I do support the combined goal of stabilizing the government in Afghanistan and then getting our troops out of there as quickly as possible. Based on what he said that seems to also be the goal of the President but I am not sure he can deliver.

Obviously the speech itself was pretty well delivered, but then delivering speeches well is like breathing for this President, he’s quite good at it. I was a tad put off by the segment of the speech where he took time to basically excuse himself from any blame for anything that has happened (or seemingly will happen) in the conflict.

But I also understand that politics is politics and you have to do that. In addition it’s hard to deny that the last administration made some mistakes. I just wish he’d soft pedalled it a bit more. When you’re coming to West Point to ask troops to make a major sacrifice it seems a little small to try and defend yourself like that.

As to the content of the speech, I am a little uncertain as to how it is going to work. As I understand it the plan is to send in about 34,000 troops beginning sometime in early 2010 in order to stabilize things. This deployment is supposed to take about 8 months or roughly 4,500 troops a month. Deployment would be completed by the end of August 2010 (assuming they start in January).

This is roughly a 40% increase in total forces (currently reported to be around 70,000), though obviously to a degree it depends on what kind of troops are going in (IE logistical staff versus combat troops).

The next part of the plan is to begin removing troops in the summer of 2011. Exact timelines are not yet clear but the pledge seems to indicate completion by 2012, so with around 100,000 troops deployed (current plus new) that would work out to around the same 5,000 or so troops between June 2011 and December 2012.

So that means we would have a period of about 9 months (September 2010 through May 2011) at the new troop level and then we’d start dropping off and would reach the current levels again by roughly December 2011 (or roughly 15 months).

If things are as bad as they are supposed to be, how likely is it that things will truly improve by 2011 ?

And if things do not improve does that mean either an additional troop surge in 2011 or the cancellation of the planned pullout ?

And what will the new timelines look like at that point ? 2012 ? 2013 ? 2015 ?

To a degree these questions reflect the problem of setting timetables. It’s not simply the issue of ‘if we set a timetable the enemy will just wait for us’. It’s also a matter of if you set timetables and tell the American people and our troops that things will be done by Date X, then they expect you to deliver.

I suppose in many ways I am somewhat unusual in that I have never had the hard line ‘like him/hate him’ attitude towards Obama (or indeed any President in my lifetime) nor do I have the hard line attitudes on Iraq and Afghanistan policies.

I supported the war in Afghanistan because it was clear that under the Taliban regime that the nation was a major base of support for Al Qaeda and as a result could be the source of a real threat to our security. I initially supported the war in Iraq because I felt the evidence was sufficient to prove them a threat (though my views there have changed).

My hope in both cases was that if we could remove the oppressive leadership in both countries and allow the people to establish reasonably stable governments that it would be better for the world as a whole.

At the same time I am doubtful of the prospects for success in both countries simply because I suspect no matter how long we stay, the bad guys will be willing to stay longer.

Having said that I am willing to give this new policy some time to work. I do think it is in the best interests of our country to have a stable Afghanistan and if this policy can accomplish that goal and get our troops out of the region by the end of 2012 then I will happily support it.

But at the same time there is the old saying that the definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over and expect different results. If we find ourselves sitting here a year or more from now and there has not been much (or any) progress then I am going to be much less likely to support another surge or delays in bringing the troops home.

Obama has my support…… for now. But the clock has started.