Most of world outside the US, especially on the Arab street, will see the Gaza ceasefire as a gain for Hamas whatever the spin put on it by Israel and its supporters.
Billions of Chinese, Indians and Africans will likely agree with the Arab street. In today’s globalized world, this would be a sorry result for Israel’s existential struggles.
Few people outside the West understand the justice of Israel’s biblical right to Palestinian land or the legality of its war fighting. All understand televised images of utter destruction and mothers crying over dead children. They also understand the despair of Gaza’s rockets fired blindly just to show that defiance is not entirely snuffed out.
Perhaps, as Israel says, Hamas is the worst thing that ever happened to Gaza’s people but the invasion has strengthened its political power instead of weakening it. The military strength will return in due course, making Israelis unsafe as ever.
Israel did not score a clear victory.
In today’s remorseless world, that is almost the same as being defeated. To outsiders, the war has demonstrated that the Gaza Palestinians, both civilian and militants, also see their war against Israel as existential and are willing to suffer for it.
Hamas made sure of that by not being the first to cave in. It announced its separate ceasefire over 12 hours after Israel’s unilateral declaration. That time was the minimum needed to bring under control all the disparate clans and factions trying to fight Israel in Gaza.
It gives Hamas the additional prestige of having proven that it does substantially control all fighters and clans in that territory, including those that oppose its political ascendancy or its Islamist beliefs.
Hamas underscored its ability to stand up and continue to fight in unity with other factions by limiting the ceasefire to the one week needed for Israeli troops to withdraw safely. In effect, it has made staying Gaza’s hand conditional on Israel staying its hand.
Israel, the European Union (EU), Egypt and the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority may try to portray the ceasefire as a draw or even a victory for Tel Aviv. But the Arab street and many in European streets will not give it much credence.
Other people in China, India and Africa who are less familiar with the Jewish people’s historic suffering will also find it hard to see what safety Tel Aviv achieved through this war.
Of course, there is huge relief everywhere that the carnage is halted. But it is well known that Hamas had declared clear objectives: it would not stop fighting unless Israel stopped first, the land routes to Gaza would have to be reopened and Gaza should be free to advance its economic rehabilitation.
All three things seem to be happening step by slow step. Israel on the other hand said it wanted to end rocket attacks on its cities and make future attacks impossible by sealing off all possible means for Hamas to reacquire weapons.
The ceasefire so far does not create those conditions for Israel. Any violent faction in Gaza can fire rockets against it unless Hamas is allowed to reassert dictatorial control over all of Gaza’s crowded territory. That means strengthening the civilian and police primacy of Hamas.
Further, it is impossible to seal off resupply of weapons if the land routes from Egypt are reopened. There are no reliable means of ensuring that weapons and explosives are not hidden among humanitarian and civilian resupplies brought into Gaza by thousands of trucks.
Reconstructing the physical devastation of Gaza will require massive supplies. Each crate cannot be verified. Israel has obtained special US technologies to spot tunnels and electronically survey containers transported overland. But the crossing points will remain unsophisticated for months making it impossible to check each transported object.
Given the intense hatred for Israel among all Palestinian factions, it is futile to hope that weapons shipments can be choked off completely. Even if 5% get through, they will be enough to give Hamas and others the capacity to fight another day with weapons more modern and accurate than those they use currently.
The ordinary people of Gaza might wish that Hamas never existed because its recklessness visited the misery of Israel’s sledgehammer upon them. Yet, inevitably, they will feel much greater hatred for Israel than they will for Hamas.
There is no simple way of controlling chaos within Gaza in the immediate aftermath of Israel’s withdrawal without allowing more Hamas control. The people of Gaza are likely to reject any bid by the West Bank Fatah to rule them since many blame its leadership for supporting the invasion.
If Fatah wants to control Gaza, it will have fight Hamas street by street in Gaza. Israel may have depleted Hamas’s supply of rockets but the light weapons needed to fight Fatah are still there.
Fatah’s people in Gaza are as broken as those of Hamas after the Israeli assaults. Unless fresh Fatah fighters enter from the West Bank to conduct this fratricidal war, dethroning Hamas in Gaza has become less likely for the moment.
Overall, it looks like this existential war was almost useless for the peaceful daily life of Israelis. Their fear can only become worse after their enemies have had time to breathe a little even if Israel continues its usual mix of economic blockades and military strikes.