Of the 10 States left, (plus Florida) all of which will be referred to by the media as Battleground States so they can keep the fever going, at least half are really decided and are not significant battlegrounds at all. If you live there, fight for every vote. They’re close enough to switch. But if you live elsewhere, put your money and efforts into the final 6 critical States (including Florida).
Three of these States lean and have historically voted Republican and will likely go that way in 2016:
Arizona (11) leans Rep. Trump won by 3.5%, or 91,000 votes. Most likely of these Republican States to switch, but unlikely. Republican governor and State House. “Statistics show a close division among Arizona’s 3,782,218 active registered voters as of January 2019: Republican 34.72% (1,313,023), Party-Not-Designated/Other 33.26% (1,257,995), Democratic 30.99% (1,172,216).” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Arizona#:~:text=Statistics%20show%20a%20close%20division%20among%20Arizona%27s%203%2C782%2C218,%281%2C172%2C216%29%2C%20Libertarian%200.86%25%20%2832%2C374%29%2C%20and%20Green%200.17%25%20%286%2C610%29
Georgia (16) leans Rep. Trump won by 5.1%, or 211,000 votes. Probably the least likely to go Democrat. Republican Governor and everything else. BUT, “A wave of people signed up to vote in Georgia last year, adding 322,000 active voters to the rolls ahead of a presidential election in an increasingly competitive state.” https://www.ajc.com/news/state–regional-govt–politics/rise-young-and-diverse-georgia-voters-may-influence-2020-elections/eyscOYUMRnDZgG2xKYAmNM/
North Carolina (15) leans Rep. Trump won by 3.6% or 173,000 votes. Democrat Governor, Republican everything else. “Over the past four years, the number of registered Republicans increased by a little over 100,000, while the number of registered Democrats decreased by a little over 100,000” https://www.nccivitas.org/2020/north-carolina-voter-registration-since-2016-little-republican-little-divided/
Two lean Democrat and will likely go that way:
Colorado (9) leans Dem. Hillary won by 4.9%, or 136,000 votes. Governor and State House Democrat, BUT “40% of Colorado voters are now unaffiliated” https://coloradosun.com/2019/12/26/colorado-voter-registration-unaffiliated-voters-2020-election/
Virginia (13) leans Dem. Hillary won by strong 5.4% or over 200,000 votes. Governor and entire government, Democrat.
But a few of the five are close enough to switch if those in those States drop the ball. So, after these States are counted, the Electoral Vote count is:
Democrats 223
Republicans 212
If these states go as expected, the game begins with the Dems holding a slimmer 11-point lead.
The real fight, however, will happen and needs to happen in the Big 6, literally the only States on the Board that matter. That have ever mattered!
