With the public hearings so far, a more convincing case has emerged to believe that President Donald Trump deliberately abused his position of power to intimidate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into taking actions that could favor Trump’s reelection in 2020.
So, the fast-moving attempt by House Democrats to impeach Trump is starting to look a little bit less like brutal partisan politics to oust a person who many American’s think illegitimately snatched the presidency and might even be mentally unhinged enough to be unsafe for the US and the world.
Some more voters may slip into the anti-Trump camp because of the convincing nature of the public hearings combined with the apparent inability of the Republicans to present an equally persuasive case that Trump did nothing wrong or at least unbecoming for a US President.
These are early days in the public process but nothing much has happened so far for foreign observers to see the expected pro-impeachment decision of Congress as anything more than a resentful affair conducted along strictly Party lines.
There was powerful testimony last week by U.S. charges d’affaires in Ukraine Bill Taylor, Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs George Kent and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch.
Trump may even have opened himself up to accusations of witness tampering and witness intimidation by his behavior and latest tweet against Yovanovitch on Friday.
Barring dramatic surprises from future witnesses called to the public hearing, the Americans closest to these matters in Ukraine have already spoken. These best witnesses were unable to unequivocally state that the President instructed them to seek a quid pro quo from Zelensky in exchange for military aid.
The smoking guns are convincing but no one saw the shot. The only thing clear is that Trump crudely disrespected habitual American and international diplomatic norms and humiliated State Department professionals through his contempt for their traditional methods.
There seems very little here for him to lose a trial in the Senate or in the court of public opinion in major European and Asian countries. Many traditionalist people in foreign countries find it distasteful when professional bureaucrats cooperate in attempts to unseat a democratically elected President.
Those who put themselves in Ukraine’s shoes will be alarmed that bitter divisions inside the US have caused that country to become a political football just because the Democrats seem determined to avoid an investigation by Ukraine of one of their own: presidential hopeful Joe Biden (and his son Hunter).
To many Americans, Trump’s obsession with Biden and his son’s involvement in Ukraine stems from a discredited conspiracy theory. But that obsession and the impeachment hearings have placed Ukraine in a vulnerable situation.
Ukraine is on the front line with Russia in Europe because Moscow has annexed a part of its territory in Crimea. A separate one-third of its territory in the East is mired in a war of attrition to forcibly obtain autonomy from the Ukrainian government with Russia’s military help.
Although Ukraine is not part of the European Union, the entire EU’s stability and security will be shaken if the country remains dismembered. Russia would then become the decider through military power of Ukraine’s relations with Europe and the West.
The impeachment process has placed Ukraine at the center of US politics for all the wrong reasons. If the Democrats impeach Trump in Congress along partisan lines, the rift with Republicans in both House and Senate will become more venomous.
That is the worst possible outcome for Ukraine, which needs strong bipartisan support to face Russian military intimidation and pressure to weaken its security, trade and economic links with the West to favor a Eurasian economic group set up by Moscow.
Even a failed impeachment process could mean that Ukraine remains in limbo until after the November 2020 US presidential elections. Zelensky has already bowed to Russia’s Vladimir Putin to seek accommodation on Crimea and East Ukraine.
They will meet for the first time in Paris next month with help from French President Emmanuel Macron who wants to build bridges with Putin. The impeachment process might alleviate some of the burn in anti-Trumpers but it is already on the way to deeply affecting Europe