If current projections hold true and the Obama/Biden ticket carries the day on Tuesday, this is the question posed by Festers at Newshoggers, in what he describes as Biden’s “Cheney Problem.”

Let us assume that Barack Obama and Joe Biden win on Tuesday. I think that is becoming extraordinarily likely. This will produce one hell of an interesting Republican primary in 2012 as there are multiple divided power blocs, but also a very divided Democratic primary cycle in 2016 as there will be no natural successor. Joe Biden will suffer from the Cheney problem. He’ll be too old to credibly run or threaten to run for the 2016 term.

Just something to think about in a couple of years if there is any speculation that Biden won’t run for VP in 2012 as that would be a natural point for a successor to be anointed.

It’s an interesting question, Fester, and one which really gets to the heart of the Democrats’ ability to learn from the actions of their opponents. The selection of Dick Cheney by George W. Bush carried a number of benefits for the GOP ticket. After 9/11 and the launch of two wars, Cheney’s newfound neocon hawkish tendencies made him an ideal water carrier for the pro-war agenda. But from day one, the Republicans knew they would be rolling the dice this year, as there was no way that Cheney – with both his advanced age and multiple coronary events – would dare take a shot at the nomination. An open field leads to the type of acrimony and infighting we saw in the GOP primary this year.

Biden has had a few medical issues himself and is getting on in years. Will he claim that health concerns are prompting him to “spend more time with his family” in 2012, opening the door for Obama to anoint a potential successor? I’m far too burned out to even begin speculating who that might be, but a failure to put a new contender in that slot will lead the Democrats to the same thing McCain faced this spring. (Assuming, that is, that Obama could hold fast for two terms, which is definitely up in the air.)